United States Politics Thread 47

[malloc]

What are our plans if Trump manages to rig the election? The last I heard, he is working on blocking mailed ballots, which disproportionately come from Democrats. If that plan makes it through court challenges or goes unchallenged, the Republicans will win the midterms. Furthermore, I recently saw a poll saying that Republicans had regained the lead in the midterms.

[zompist]

If that plan makes it through court challenges or goes unchallenged,

Goes unchallenged? It's already in the courts. 23 states challenged the post office's plans. A separate suit was filed by civil rights groups.

Do some research before spreading bullshit to glorify the God-Emperor.

Furthermore, I recently saw a poll saying that Republicans had regained the lead in the midterms.

Silver's consolidated chart, which is a weighted average of more than 20 polls, has the generic Congressional ballot at 48% Dem, 42% Rep. It's been that way for at least six months.

Stop scaring yourself with poor sources.

Also, because I know you like to project your own bullshit onto others: no one can give you fucking certainty. You are the one who loves to predict the certain, unstoppable power of the God-Emperor.

[alice]

If Trump was a vehicle, what would he be? malloc thinks he's a combination of a steamroller and a tank, flattening everything in its path and impervious to any kind of attack. He's more like a patched-up wreck with dodgy steering and one of those exhausts which goes "bang" a lot, dangerous enough in its own way but much less of a threat than it appears at first sight. Perhaps y'all can come up with better analogies?

[Raphael]

A toy truck.

[zompist]

A big bulldozer which has lost its driver, but is still running. People sometimes climb aboard and take a joyride, running over things with it,

[alice]

Getting a bit meta here, if Trump was asked "Mr. President, if you were a vehicle, what kind of vehicle would you be?", what would he answer? It'd definitely be huuuuuuge, for a start.

[Raphael]

A monster truck crossed with a tank and shooting lasers.

[lëtzeshark]

On an unrelated aside, I just sent my ballot in for the midterms (yay for absentee voting). The main state offices in NC aren't up for election this year, as the Governor and the Council of State (the cabinet) are elected in Presidential election years, but there was still quite a lot on the ballot, including three referenda (in North Carolina, all constitutional amendments have to go through a referendum before they get adopted).

[malloc]

Trump may have found his winning message for the midterms: paying every adult $5000 if Republicans win the midterm elections. We can only hope he forgets about this and the media doesn't decide to run with it since I really worry that it could work. People need money, especially now, and promising that much money could move the needle.

[Ketsuban]

Meanwhile in reality, Trump has promised adults in the United States $5,000 in dividends from DOGE, $2,000 in dividends from tariffs (because he thinks they're a tax the US levies on foreigners) and $1,000 from expiring ACA subsidies and actually given them $0,000 in dividends from the wind coming out of his backside.

[malloc]

Meanwhile in reality, Trump has promised adults in the United States $5,000 in dividends from DOGE, $2,000 in dividends from tariffs (because he thinks they're a tax the US levies on foreigners) and $1,000 from expiring ACA subsidies and actually given them $0,000 in dividends from the wind coming out of his backside.

Well yes, I fully expect him to break this promise regardless of how the elections gone. Nonetheless all that matters from an electoral standpoint is whether the voters believe him.

[bradrn]

Meanwhile in reality, Trump has promised adults in the United States $5,000 in dividends from DOGE, $2,000 in dividends from tariffs (because he thinks they're a tax the US levies on foreigners) and $1,000 from expiring ACA subsidies and actually given them $0,000 in dividends from the wind coming out of his backside.

Well yes, I fully expect him to break this promise regardless of how the elections gone. Nonetheless all that matters from an electoral standpoint is whether the voters believe him.

Even by his standards this is ludicrous. Where would the money come from?

[lëtzeshark]

Even by his standards this is ludicrous. Where would the money come from?

And such a shame I already returned my ballot. </sarcasm> More seriously, it's a mystery to everyone. Even if (and it's looking very unlikely) his party were to win the midterm elections, Congress would still have to pass an appropriations bill authorizing it; given how he hasn't gotten Congress to cooperate on his pet legislation even with majorities in both houses and given how much it would cost (and there are quite a few in the GOP who want to slash spending!), I see the chance of this happening as being close to zero.

Senate elections also run very strongly on personal popularity of candidates, perhaps much moreso than House elections, and the Senate has what appears to be a high likelihood of flipping control thanks to places like... Alaska, Ohio, and Tex-ass, of all states.

Meanwhile in reality, Trump has promised adults in the United States $5,000 in dividends from DOGE, $2,000 in dividends from tariffs (because he thinks they're a tax the US levies on foreigners) and $1,000 from expiring ACA subsidies and actually given them $0,000 in dividends from the wind coming out of his backside.

Who's surprised! (I actually hadn't heard the thing about the ACA subsidies or the budget cuts that "DOGE" tried for; shows how much I really believe anything that comes from the people in the White House.)

[Raphael]

I don't share malloc's apparent conviction that this, in one way, cheap, and in another way, potentially very expensive trick will definitely work, but, that said, I am seriously curious how much of a chance it has of working. For the record, I suspect that many people aren't all that worried about where the money might come from. All too many people simply can't do math. Many might even think that Trump could easily pay the needed amount out of his own fortune. Yes, that sounds like a ridiculous idea to people who can do basic multiplications and divisions, but well, many people can't.

[Raphael]

Unrelated, today I learned that Trump appointed a guy named Leo Brent Bozell III as US Ambassador to South Africa, and it turns out he looks pretty much exactly the way you'd expect someone named "Leo Brent Bozell III" to look like (article requires signing up for spam, but the photo at the top doesn't): https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article ... five-asks/

Going back, I'm still seriously curious what everyone thinks how likely or unlikely Trump's bribery attempt is to fail or succeed.

[zompist]

Going back, I'm still seriously curious what everyone thinks how likely or unlikely Trump's bribery attempt is to fail or succeed.

Why not wait a week and see if the proposal still exists, how excited Republicans are about a $2 trillion hike to the deficit, how Democrats are countering it, and whether the polls have budged?

[bradrn]

(article requires signing up for spam, but the photo at the top doesn't): https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article ... five-asks/

Minor correction: the Daily Maverick isn’t actually paywalled (well, sign-up-walled). You can read the whole article if you refresh. Speaking as a regular reader I find it fairly annoying, and I don’t get why they display it randomly, but it’s not actually a barrier.

[Raphael]

(article requires signing up for spam, but the photo at the top doesn't): https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article ... five-asks/

Minor correction: the Daily Maverick isn’t actually paywalled (well, sign-up-walled). You can read the whole article if you refresh. Speaking as a regular reader I find it fairly annoying, and I don’t get why they display it randomly, but it’s not actually a barrier.

Ah, thank you.

[malloc]

This latest announcement does have me worried, though. The education system here sucks and plenty of Americans will undoubtedly hear this promise without considering its arithmetical implications and effects on the budget. Furthermore the ongoing problems with inflation and soaring gas prices will make this proposal more appealing than ever. It really is a brilliant scheme, bleeding the people dry and then dangling relief if they dance for you. We can only hope that they're smart enough to remember why they're broke in the first place, although that seems a long shot these days.

[Travis B.]

This latest announcement does have me worried, though. The education system here sucks and plenty of Americans will undoubtedly hear this promise without considering its arithmetical implications and effects on the budget. Furthermore the ongoing problems with inflation and soaring gas prices will make this proposal more appealing than ever. It really is a brilliant scheme, bleeding the people dry and then dangling relief if they dance for you. We can only hope that they're smart enough to remember why they're broke in the first place, although that seems a long shot these days.

Trump has promised money on multiple previous occasions, it never arrived, and even Trump's fellow Republicans are panning this, since they certainly don't want to pay for it.