United States Politics Thread 47

[Raphael]

Thank you for clearing that up!

[Raphael]

Quoting something from the random thread to comment on it:

In a similar vein... Trump is 80, not in good health, and I just don't see MAGA carrying on without Trump.

Frankly, I think some people are a bit too certain that Trump himself physically won't last much longer.

Yes, he's clearly in decline. But whatever about his mental state, physically he still seems to be able to deliver lengthy speeches, or at least he was not too long ago.

And that makes he think of how my grandfather was like during the last few years of his life. He found it very difficult to move, or really, to do anything. He only rarely ever talked, and even more rarely talked without being prompted. He generally did very little, except for moving between his bed, his bathroom, his kitchen table, and his armchair in the living room. So, I'd say physically, he was in a worse state than Trump is in now during those years. As for his mental state, that was a bit difficult to judge, because he talked so little. And, again, he was in that state for several years before he died. That makes me think that Trump might still have years to go, too.

[malloc]

Frankly, I think some people are a bit too certain that Trump himself physically won't last much longer.

Indeed. We cannot count on the grim reaper to solve this problem for us. Obviously he will die of something eventually but until then, he has plenty of opportunities for catastrophic and perhaps permanent damage.

[Ares Land]

Frankly, I think some people are a bit too certain that Trump himself physically won't last much longer.

Indeed. We cannot count on the grim reaper to solve this problem for us. Obviously he will die of something eventually but until then, he has plenty of opportunities for catastrophic and perhaps permanent damage.

Of course Trump losing elections is by far the best option!

Quoting something from the random thread to comment on it:

In a similar vein... Trump is 80, not in good health, and I just don't see MAGA carrying on without Trump.

Frankly, I think some people are a bit too certain that Trump himself physically won't last much longer.

Honestly, I have no idea and no actual information will filter out. But there are the bruises and the irregular public appearances...

The erratic behavior and limited vocabulary would usually be cause for worry but this is Trump and (I think) he's always been that way.

[Raphael]

Honestly, I have no idea and no actual information will filter out. But there are the bruises and the irregular public appearances...

Well, my point was that even with those things, and even with the occasional falling asleep at public appearances, he's still in a better state than the one in which my grandfather was for years before he died.

[alice]

Frankly, I think some people are a bit too certain that Trump himself physically won't last much longer.

Indeed. We cannot count on the grim reaper to solve this problem for us. Obviously he will die of something eventually but until then, he has plenty of opportunities for catastrophic and perhaps permanent damage.

There's also the troubling fact that he has access to the best health care in the world and a bunch of devotees who'll happily pump the blood round him by themselves if it keeps him alive.

A thought: how will he be regarded once he's gone and people don't have to worry about incurring his wrath by criticising him?

[Raphael]

A thought: how will he be regarded once he's gone and people don't have to worry about incurring his wrath by criticising him?

My guess would be that the cultists will stay cultists and the non-cultists are already pretty blunt about him now.

As an aside, I think there's a real chance that when he's been gone for a while, there will be several competing Trumpist movements who will viciously argue over which one of them he would have supported.

[malloc]

I have heard here and there that the Democratic party is suffering from considerable debt while the Republican party has a considerable war chest. Aside from giving the Republicans an enormous advantage in coming elections, I also worry that this could lead the Democrats to bankruptcy. That would leave the US effectively a one-party state even without explicitly banning opposition parties.

[Richard W]

I have heard here and there that the Democratic party is suffering from considerable debt while the Republican party has a considerable war chest. Aside from giving the Republicans an enormous advantage in coming elections, I also worry that this could lead the Democrats to bankruptcy. That would leave the US effectively a one-party state even without explicitly banning opposition parties.

Why doesn't the US just sell votes directly, rather than using intermediaries? Is it that it needs the escape valve of being able to vote deeply unpopular leaders out?

[Ares Land]

Don't get me wrong, it is a huge worry.

But I wonder about return on investment. Does spending the GDP of several European countries on making Trump look good actually work?

A thought: how will he be regarded once he's gone and people don't have to worry about incurring his wrath by criticising him?

It's a good question. I see two options: either he'll be remembered as some kind of mythical tutelary figure for Conservatives, credited with unrealistic achievements (like Reagan) or just quietly forgotten to the point you wonder if he's ever been President (like George W. Bush)

[rotting bones]

Honestly, I have no idea and no actual information will filter out. But there are the bruises and the irregular public appearances...

Well, my point was that even with those things, and even with the occasional falling asleep at public appearances, he's still in a better state than the one in which my grandfather was for years before he died.

I'm worried that by the time their current crop of failed businessmen die out, the oligarchs will have their own crop of vat-grown candidates. They will have put them through the Disney Channel and memed them all over the Internet, making them familiar to Gen Alpha voters through the brain rot their parents made them sit through as toddlers.

[malloc]

I'm worried that by the time their current crop of failed businessmen die out, the oligarchs will have their own crop of vat-grown candidates. They will have put them through the Disney Channel and memed them all over the Internet, making them familiar to Gen Alpha voters through the brain rot their parents made them sit through as toddlers.

Interesting point. Everyone focuses on Trump but there is an entire ecosystem of propagandists and politicians supporting him and clearing the way for his agenda. Think of the podcasters indoctrinating young men into right wing politics and pseudoscience or judges ruling in his favor or the computer industry CEOs who have thrown their weight behind him. Even if he died tomorrow, all those people would continue pushing the broader MAGA agenda in various ways. There will definitely be another Trump in the future, probably younger and smarter as well.

[bradrn]

Even if he died tomorrow, all those people would continue pushing the broader MAGA agenda in various ways.

Thing is, those ‘various ways’ tend to be mutually contradictory. One person pushes conspiracy theories about how the Jews drag America into war, while another advocates hawkish military adventurism. And so on and so forth. I agree with the others that without the central figure of Trump to hold things together, the various kinds of ‘MAGAs’ will immediately start feuding with each other. (I mean, arguably they’ve started already.)

[rotting bones]

Even if he died tomorrow, all those people would continue pushing the broader MAGA agenda in various ways.

Thing is, those ‘various ways’ tend to be mutually contradictory. One person pushes conspiracy theories about how the Jews drag America into war, while another advocates hawkish military adventurism. And so on and so forth. I agree with the others that without the central figure of Trump to hold things together, the various kinds of ‘MAGAs’ will immediately start feuding with each other. (I mean, arguably they’ve started already.)

Conspiracy theories always have feuding internal factions. This can be a strength. It prevents any evidence from disconfirming the theory as a whole. Even if all the factions are refuted, a determined adherent can always invent a new one. The analogy extends to political structures. The Roman Empire kept having internal feuds during the whole time that it kept expanding.

I think course correction will require a radical restructuring of governing systems. This means a revolution, though not all revolutions are bloody.

[Ares Land]

A bit of (tentative) optimism may be warranted here, if only to balance opinions on this thread a bit.
If I read the opinion polls right, the Democrats are likely to win the Senate and the House. All MAGA discourse right now is, as the kids say, cope as Trump's presidency is literally undefensible.
Tech oligarchs are more or less supporting the Republicans, but they also have a track record of supporting whoever appears to be winning. Who is Trump's successor? Rubio? Vance? Both are unimpressive.

I do expect the Republicans to keep finding new ways of being crazy.

I'm more worried about the considerable damage Trump is likely to do in the next two years.

[rotting bones]

A bit of (tentative) optimism may be warranted here, if only to balance opinions on this thread a bit.
If I read the opinion polls right, the Democrats are likely to win the Senate and the House. All MAGA discourse right now is, as the kids say, cope as Trump's presidency is literally undefensible.
Tech oligarchs are more or less supporting the Republicans, but they also have a track record of supporting whoever appears to be winning. Who is Trump's successor? Rubio? Vance? Both are unimpressive.

I do expect the Republicans to keep finding new ways of being crazy.

I'm more worried about the considerable damage Trump is likely to do in the next two years.

Speaking long-term, votes keep swinging back and forth between the two parties. Every time the Republicans come to power, they do even more damage. Without changing the system, the only option the Democrats have is to become as intransigent as the Republicans. If the system changes radically every 4 years, that will create more instability. That's why so many Democrats are tempted to work with the Republicans. But working with their insanity means doing nothing to prevent the slide into fascism.

To summarize, the choices are: 1. Instability through intransigence. 2. Fascism through cooperation. 3. Revolution. 4. Mass administration of antipsychotics.

[lëtzeshark]

A bit of (tentative) optimism may be warranted here, if only to balance opinions on this thread a bit.
If I read the opinion polls right, the Democrats are likely to win the Senate and the House. All MAGA discourse right now is, as the kids say, cope as Trump's presidency is literally undefensible.
Tech oligarchs are more or less supporting the Republicans, but they also have a track record of supporting whoever appears to be winning. Who is Trump's successor? Rubio? Vance? Both are unimpressive.

I do expect the Republicans to keep finding new ways of being crazy.

I'm more worried about the considerable damage Trump is likely to do in the next two years.

At least looking at most recent polls, a lot of Senate races are quite competitive right now (Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Tex-ass could flip blue, with Iowa as a longshot; only Michigan is looking like it might flip red, but that's not so certain), as are quite a number of the gubernatorial races (Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, and Ohio are all competitive to flip to the Democrats; Wisconsin, Kansas, and Arizona are competitive to flip to the Republicans). Elections do run on personal popularity in the US, but a lot of the open seats/races are where incumbents aren't running/aren't eligible to run/got defeated in primaries.

That said, there's some degree of damage that can be done, but having a not-cooperative Congress can mitigate a lot of that damage. At the same time, though, primary season for 2028 will start next spring, when the beauty pageants will get underway and the heir(s) to Trump's legacy will try to clamor for attention. In a less insane world, both Vance and Rubio would have the most clear path to the nomination, but there are enough attention hogs to where I could see others trying to fight for attention... and it could be that they'd want to lie low for a bit to let any residual anger maybe pass.

I think course correction will require a radical restructuring of governing systems. This means a revolution, though not all revolutions are bloody.

A lot of things would need to change, indeed, though there are enough vested interests in keeping the system as is that any major changes would require strong, coordinated action... and very likely from outside.


In any event, I have "request ballot" at the top of my Tod-O-Liste come September (and as happens for me every two years come the general elections).

[Raphael]

Even if he died tomorrow, all those people would continue pushing the broader MAGA agenda in various ways.

Thing is, those ‘various ways’ tend to be mutually contradictory. One person pushes conspiracy theories about how the Jews drag America into war, while another advocates hawkish military adventurism. And so on and so forth. I agree with the others that without the central figure of Trump to hold things together, the various kinds of ‘MAGAs’ will immediately start feuding with each other. (I mean, arguably they’ve started already.)

Exactly. The clearest fissure line is probably the Jew-haters versus the Ben-Gvir-lovers, but that's far from the only one.

[malloc]

One thing that worries me is that Musk has already committed to spending $200 million on helping the Republicans win the midterms, alongside all the money they're already raising themselves. Despite their currently dire polling, they could easily hold Congress just through extreme outspending. Much as we might enjoy gloating at their ongoing incompetence, things might well look quite different in the next few months.

Also, it underscores just how well the MAGA movement has won the culture wars that even notionally far left people like AOC have come out against "woke" and dismissed it as crazy. It makes me worry that the relative tolerance and progressive climate that characterized the 2010s is lost forever.

[Travis B.]

malloc, you seem to think that the Republicans can simply buy votes by spending more money, when AIPAC tried to do the very same thing with very inconsistent results, in contexts where the people the money was being poured in for were not nearly as unpopular as the Republicans are now. Elon Musk tried to practically literally buy votes here in Wisconsin not that long ago and failed. How do you think the Republicans, with their failed war leading to higher prices for everyone, amongst other things, will succeed now?