United States Politics Thread 47

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bradrn
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

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malloc wrote: ↑Thu Jul 23, 2026 3:40 pm If the Democrats have any sense, they will ignore your brand of optimism and develop countermeasures for when the bill inevitably passes.
I feel quite sure they are developing a plan for what to do if the bill passes (even though it probably won’t). As they say, ‘hope for the best and prepare for the worst’ — unlike what you seem to believe, the former does not exclude the latter.
alice wrote: ↑Thu Jul 23, 2026 2:50 pmAnd then Trump will use his SPESHUL PREZIDENSHUL SOUP-A-POWAHZ to hypnotize the entire electorate into voting Republican so he doesn't have to invoke emergency laws to suspend the midterms. Amirite?
Everyone laughs at me for emphasizing the strength and cunning of the MAGA movement, but you cannot deny that they control every branch of government, most state governments, and have democracy in check. It seems difficult to explain that without ascribing some remarkable skill to them.
No, I certainly do not agree. They do not yet ‘have democracy in check’ by any means. Of course, if everyone had that defeatist attitude they would have had it in check long ago. Thank God that lots of people have a more determined attitude than you do.
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

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malloc wrote: ↑Thu Jul 23, 2026 3:40 pm If the Democrats have any sense, they will ignore your brand of optimism
Apparently not giving up and bowing down to the Unstoppable God-Emperor is "optimism". Stop trying to pretend the contents of your rectum are better than actual reporting.
and develop countermeasures for when the bill inevitably passes. Presumably they could launch a massive campaign to help married women update their birth certificates or something.
How do I put this in words of one syllable.

Bill not passed yet. Bill not SAVE act. Bill just fund SAVE act if it pass.
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

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zompist wrote: ↑Thu Jul 23, 2026 4:17 pmHow do I put this in words of one syllable.

Bill not passed yet. Bill not SAVE act. Bill just fund SAVE act if it pass.
But the Republicans have a majority in the senate. The only thing stopping them from passing the bill is multiple Republicans voting against it. They have everything to gain by passing the bill because it will make voting them out practically impossible and nothing to lose since none of the people criticizing it were voting for them anyway. Right now the Republicans have fifty-two functional senators (since McConnell is either dead or comatose) which means at least three of them would have to vote against the bill for it to fail. What makes you so sure that enough of them would?
bradrn wrote: ↑Thu Jul 23, 2026 3:52 pmNo, I certainly do not agree. They do not yet ‘have democracy in check’ by any means. Of course, if everyone had that defeatist attitude they would have had it in check long ago. Thank God that lots of people have a more determined attitude than you do.
Check and checkmate are not the same thing. The former means an opportunity to capture the king if the opponent does nothing while the latter means the king has no escape from capture. Clearly the Republicans have democracy in check in the sense that they have a clear path to rigging the vote if they don't lose their nerve and the Democrats cannot find some way to block them.
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

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malloc wrote: ↑Thu Jul 23, 2026 6:47 pm
zompist wrote: ↑Thu Jul 23, 2026 4:17 pmHow do I put this in words of one syllable.

Bill not passed yet. Bill not SAVE act. Bill just fund SAVE act if it pass.
But
But you didn't read the bit I posted, or the article it comes from. You just contradict actual reporters because for you everything must be DOOM DOOM DOOM WORSHIP TRUMP. You don't understand why a budget bill is not the SAVE act because DOOM DOOM DOOM WORSHIP TRUMP. And you want to be congratulated for your political insight because apparently shouting DOOM DOOM DOOM WORSHIP TRUMP every two minutes makes you smarter than actual reporters.
What makes you so sure
What do you think I'm "so sure" about? This is pure projection. You are totally sure about DOOM DOOM DOOM WORSHIP TRUMP so you think everyone else must also be making wild claims with total certainty. No, the rest of us live in an uncertain world and seek out the best sources we can.

In this case, who should I believe? One one hand, political reporters with a long track record that can be checked, who actually talk to politicians and their staff, who report both good news and bad news. On the other hand, a doomerist who tells us a bill is passed when it is not, who misrepresents what is in the bill, who misrepresents its chances of passing because they only believe bad news, who cannot be educated about any of these things, who has frequently been wrong before.

Some advice given to another person in another forum that would help you: Stop doomscrolling. Get off social media. Understand that doomerism HELPS THE FASCISTS. It's not just my joke, you are literally reinforcing the helplessness and inaction that they want. If you are concerned about a problem EDUCATE YOURSELF, not on social media, not just stuff written in the last year.
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

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Some more good advice from that forum:
I am someone who believes most of the above "doomer" claims, but I do NOT spend my time doom scrolling. In fact, I have a strict rule that I don't read detailed news or documentaries or whatnot about a horrifying topic unless doing so would help me to take action about it. Instead, I focus on that taking action part.

I do lots of stuff to maintain my mental health in the context of a very chaotic and devolving society: I walk in nature, I cook and share meals with friends, I see art, I do yoga and exercise, I zone out and smoke weed. But importantly for this question: I also take action.

The future is not yet written, and action is the antidote to despair.
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

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zompist wrote: ↑Thu Jul 23, 2026 11:08 pm Some more good advice from that forum:
I am someone who believes most of the above "doomer" claims, but I do NOT spend my time doom scrolling. In fact, I have a strict rule that I don't read detailed news or documentaries or whatnot about a horrifying topic unless doing so would help me to take action about it. Instead, I focus on that taking action part.

I do lots of stuff to maintain my mental health in the context of a very chaotic and devolving society: I walk in nature, I cook and share meals with friends, I see art, I do yoga and exercise, I zone out and smoke weed. But importantly for this question: I also take action.

The future is not yet written, and action is the antidote to despair.
Out of curiosity, which forum is that?
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

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zompist wrote: ↑Thu Jul 23, 2026 10:12 pmBut you didn't read the bit I posted, or the article it comes from. You just contradict actual reporters because for you everything must be DOOM DOOM DOOM WORSHIP TRUMP. You don't understand why a budget bill is not the SAVE act because DOOM DOOM DOOM WORSHIP TRUMP. And you want to be congratulated for your political insight because apparently shouting DOOM DOOM DOOM WORSHIP TRUMP every two minutes makes you smarter than actual reporters.
Nothing in the article you posted says the bill cannot pass, only that many people doubt its ability to pass. Certainly there are obstacles but hardly insurmountable ones. It really just takes fifty out of the fifty-three Republicans in the senate to pass, which seems quite an easy threshold to meet. Furthermore, have you or the reporters considered that the people interviewed are simply lying about their intentions and feelings on the bill? It seems incredibly naïve to trust the Republicans on anything, least of all something that would guarantee them victory for decades.
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

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malloc wrote: ↑Fri Jul 24, 2026 8:44 am
zompist wrote: ↑Thu Jul 23, 2026 10:12 pmBut you didn't read the bit I posted, or the article it comes from. You just contradict actual reporters because for you everything must be DOOM DOOM DOOM WORSHIP TRUMP. You don't understand why a budget bill is not the SAVE act because DOOM DOOM DOOM WORSHIP TRUMP. And you want to be congratulated for your political insight because apparently shouting DOOM DOOM DOOM WORSHIP TRUMP every two minutes makes you smarter than actual reporters.
Nothing in the article you posted says the bill cannot pass, only that many people doubt its ability to pass. Certainly there are obstacles but hardly insurmountable ones. It really just takes fifty out of the fifty-three Republicans in the senate to pass, which seems quite an easy threshold to meet. Furthermore, have you or the reporters considered that the people interviewed are simply lying about their intentions and feelings on the bill? It seems incredibly naïve to trust the Republicans on anything, least of all something that would guarantee them victory for decades.
Did you miss the bit where zompist said that this bill is not the SAVE act in the first place?
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

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I have a feeling that in malloc's world, if the Senate contains 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans, then the Republicans can stop the Democrats doing anything at all, whereas if it contains 49 Democrats and 51 Republicans, then the Democrats can't stop the Republicans doing whatever they want. I'm not sure what happens if it's 50-50, but maybe he can clarify.

(Admittedly, having just written that, it *does* seem, to a outsider, to be an accurate description of how the US government works in practice. Not that this invalidates my point, of course.)
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

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alice wrote: ↑Fri Jul 24, 2026 2:35 pmI have a feeling that in malloc's world, if the Senate contains 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans, then the Republicans can stop the Democrats doing anything at all, whereas if it contains 49 Democrats and 51 Republicans, then the Democrats can't stop the Republicans doing whatever they want. I'm not sure what happens if it's 50-50, but maybe he can clarify.
From what I understand, this bill is written and presented in such a way that the Democrats cannot filibuster it the way they could the previous attempt to pass the SAVE act. There are complicated rules which make some bills open to filibuster and thus effectively require sixty votes to pass and others immune to filibuster and thus need only a simple majority.
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

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alice wrote: ↑Fri Jul 24, 2026 2:35 pm (Admittedly, having just written that, it *does* seem, to a outsider, to be an accurate description of how the US government works in practice. Not that this invalidates my point, of course.)
For foreign observers— as we have an Administrative Branch and a Judicial Branch, Congress provides the Entertainment and Obstruction Branch.

Essentially, every member feels they can do what they want. They are torn between party, donors, and voters— and their own convictions if any. In opposition they may vote in unison because hey, why not. But even the House is fractious— the very bill under discussion passed with 6 shameful Democratic votes. Republicans have forced out several of their own Speakers.

The Senate, like the Supreme Court, sees itself as an independent power which may bend but not sway to the president. They must be courted— something Trump is not good at. They are somewhat obliged to the party— but it works the other way too. E.g. Susan Collins of Maine is a Republican in a blue state; without her personally, the party loses an important vote. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska won a write-in election against a Tea Party candidate in 2010, so she feels her seat is hers, not the party's. She voted to convict Trump at his impeachment trial. Thom Tillis from North Carolina is not running again and feels free to be a thorn in Trump's side if he feels like it. Ted Cruz from Texas happily makes enemies— Lindsay Graham once commented, "If you killed Ted Cruz on the floor of the Senate and the trial was in the Senate, nobody could convict you."

This works against both parties: one or two contrarians can sink the most important bill. Obamacare barely passed, in a softened form, due to two obstructionist Senators. In Trump's first term, the Senate was unable to repeal Obamacare.

The Senate likes to pretend it's a collegial body where people communicate across the aisle. Partly for this, most senators don't want to end the filibuster— also, of course, because they know that would be used against them, and it would possibly end their importance.

The only bills that can be passed without the chance of filibuster are "reconciliation" bills— which can only change budget levels. There are arcane limits on how many of these are possible per year. The House budget resolution is one of these; that in fact is why it is not the SAVE act. Also, to my knowledge, the "budget resolution" part means that an actual detailed bill has to be prepared and pass both chambers.

There is another thing Congress values even more than votes: its summer vacation. This is fast approaching, which makes corralling votes all the harder.
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

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zompist wrote: ↑Fri Jul 24, 2026 3:39 pmThe only bills that can be passed without the chance of filibuster are "reconciliation" bills— which can only change budget levels. There are arcane limits on how many of these are possible per year. The House budget resolution is one of these; that in fact is why it is not the SAVE act. Also, to my knowledge, the "budget resolution" part means that an actual detailed bill has to be prepared and pass both chambers.
Sure but apparently it contains the same provisions as the SAVE act and would thus allow them to achieve all the same goals without having to deal with the filibuster. Surely you must concede that using an obscure loophole to get around the filibuster and rig the midterm elections is quite clever.
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

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malloc wrote: ↑Fri Jul 24, 2026 4:46 pm apparently it contains the same provisions as the SAVE act
zompist just said clearly that it does not.
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

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BTW, the actual SAVE act failed to pass the Senate last month. Four Republicans voted against it. Pundits in Missouri did not deign to comment, as this does not fit the indisputable facts of DOOM DOOM DOOM WORSHIP TRUMP.
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

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zompist wrote: ↑Fri Jul 24, 2026 5:28 pm BTW, the actual SAVE act failed to pass the Senate last month. Four Republicans voted against it. Pundits in Missouri did not deign to comment, as this does not fit the indisputable facts of DOOM DOOM DOOM WORSHIP TRUMP.
But other sources say the new bill contains the provisions of the SAVE act. Who is telling the truth in this case and why is the other side lying?
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

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malloc wrote: ↑Fri Jul 24, 2026 6:37 pm
zompist wrote: ↑Fri Jul 24, 2026 5:28 pm BTW, the actual SAVE act failed to pass the Senate last month. Four Republicans voted against it. Pundits in Missouri did not deign to comment, as this does not fit the indisputable facts of DOOM DOOM DOOM WORSHIP TRUMP.
But other sources say the new bill contains the provisions of the SAVE act. Who is telling the truth in this case and why is the other side lying?
Well, I don’t know the intricacies of American politics, but it’s usually a good heuristic to presume that it’s the Republicans who are lying. In this case the lie would make sense as a way to try to persuade their supporters that they actually are Making America Great Again (as opposed to, say, Being Thwarted By Democrats).
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

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malloc wrote: ↑Fri Jul 24, 2026 6:37 pm
zompist wrote: ↑Fri Jul 24, 2026 5:28 pm BTW, the actual SAVE act failed to pass the Senate last month. Four Republicans voted against it. Pundits in Missouri did not deign to comment, as this does not fit the indisputable facts of DOOM DOOM DOOM WORSHIP TRUMP.
But other sources say the new bill contains the provisions of the SAVE act. Who is telling the truth in this case and why is the other side lying?
Give a source. Here's are three more sources for why the budget resolution bill is not the SAVE act.
Axios wrote:Rather than including the full SAVE Act, the package proposes grants to encourage states to adopt voter ID requirements.
The Guardian wrote:But legislation seeking to advance through the Senate under the rules of budget reconciliation can only deal with spending, revenue and the debt limit, making it likely that the Save America Act’s policy changes will be stripped out when the chamber takes up the measure.
The Hill wrote:While the framework does not spell out the details of how such a program would work, the idea is to create a grant program to encourage states to adopt such voting restrictions.

Conservative hard-liners have been pushing hard for the SAVE America Act, but many of them note that the budget reconciliation process — which requires that its provisions be strictly budgetary and not policy changes, per the Senate’s Byrd Rule — cannot force Democratic states to change their voting laws as the full SAVE America Act would.
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

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alice wrote: ↑Fri Jul 24, 2026 2:35 pm I have a feeling that in malloc's world, if the Senate contains 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans, then the Republicans can stop the Democrats doing anything at all, whereas if it contains 49 Democrats and 51 Republicans, then the Democrats can't stop the Republicans doing whatever they want. I'm not sure what happens if it's 50-50, but maybe he can clarify.

(Admittedly, having just written that, it *does* seem, to a outsider, to be an accurate description of how the US government works in practice. Not that this invalidates my point, of course.)
Not sure how much zompist pointed this out...

The problem here is that the Republicans are more internally unified than the Democrats. The Democrats in the Senate usually contain a few Senators who can not at all be counted on to vote with the Democrats, and whom no one can make vote with the Democrats. Which is a problem when the Democrats have just one or two more Senators than they would theoretically need.

As for 50-50, that's very much like 51-49, because in even vote splits, the Vice President casts the deciding vote.
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

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Raphael wrote: ↑Sat Jul 25, 2026 6:30 am The problem here is that the Republicans are more internally unified than the Democrats.
Are they? I have my doubts here. The Republicans are a heterogenous alliance of different right-wing currents who neither are all convinced that Trump was the perfect leader, nor agree in all issues.
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