United States Politics Thread 47

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Raphael
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

Post by Raphael »

This will be of very little interest to the vast majority of people who see this post. It's about something that, in itself, matters very little in the larger scheme of things, though it touches on some fairly important issues. It's mainly about US politics, and, to a lesser extent, culture, so I'll post it in this thread, but to keep it from taking up too much space, I'll put most of it behind a cut. It's mostly just me pointlessly shooting fish in a barrel, though.

Thing is, I should really get rid of my habit of hate-watching Israeli podcasts. Recently, I watched one on the Youtube channel of the Times of Israel which tries to discuss recent political developments in the USA and what they mean for Jews, Israel, and antisemitism. It features one of their main contributors, Haviv Rettig Gur, who's also an employee of Bari Weiss' Free Press. If you're curious, look behind the cut:
More: show

The podcast in question is here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=baNHx4WOmX0

Now, based on what I've seen of Rettig Gur over the years, I don't think he's any kind of idiot. Which makes it all the more annoying that he talks so much nonsense.

He starts out by deeply lamenting the passing of Lindsey Graham, but I'll ignore that in this post.

The nonsense starts with a theory that left-wing activism used to be all about climate change, but is now all about Israel. The explanation Rettig Gur has for this is that supposedly, switching to renewables is very expensive, and would hurt the working class a lot.

Err, is it too much to ask that a journalist does some basic research before mouthing off with absolute confidence? The costs of renewables have been steadily falling for decades, and are now, in some contexts, below those of fossil fuels. Especially if you keep in mind how unreliable the costs of fossil fuels are these days.

As for, "hurts the working class", Haviv, you do know that increasing the use of a specific, very decentralized energy source involves installing a lot of new physical structures, right? What do you thinks who does all that installing? And then, once the stuff is installed, the maintenance work?

The only parts of the working class that might be seriously hurt by switching to renewables would be people who work in coal mining, oil rigging, or oil refining. And as a share of the entire working class, people like that simply aren't that big in the USA any more. Even West Virginia doesn't have that many coal miners left.

But I guess in the internal group chats of people who work for Bari Weiss, claims like these are universally assumed to be so obviously true by everyone as a matter of course that there's no need to check whether they actually are true.

Then, Rettig Gur talks about how central Israel, which he, of course, sees as a stand-in for Jews in general, supposedly is in Democratic primaries by now. In that context, he claims that the Democrats supposedly can't talk about anything else these days.

Which, of course, would come as a pretty big surprise to anyone who's actually paid attention to what supporters of the Democrats have been talking about recently.

First, the most talked-about topic among supporters of the Democrats for more than a year is clearly Donald Trump himself. After that, what supporters of the Democrats have talked about the most recently is probably the ongoing attempt by Trump and his Administration to re-structure (to put it politely) the constitutional and administrative makeup of the US Government. It's certainly interesting that someone from Israel of all places could look at another country, watch the internal arguments in that other country, and not notice that one of the main issues there is an attempt by political leadership to re-structure the government, and the opposition to that attempt.

At the last round of really big anti-Trump protests, the main motto was not "No Israel" or "No Zionism" or even "No Occupation" or "No Genocide". And it certainly wasn't "No Jews". No, it was "No Kings".

After that, the things the Democrats' supporters have most talked about recently are probably ICE and its murder spree. And then, there are all kinds of issues related to people's lives - health care, access to abortion and increasingly contraception, rejecting and worrying about the insistence of more and more right-wing influencers that everyone should either be a caveman or a tradwife, and so on.

There's the whole argument about "AI" in general, and the construction and maintenance of "AI" data centers in particular. And in many of the cities and areas near cities dominated by Democrats, there's the whole argument about housing and whether NIMBYs or YIMBYs are right.

You could look all of this up, Haviv. You could also look up what videos and written statements Mamdani has published since he became Mayor, and how many of them were about Israel. You could also look up his campaign ads from the mayoral election campaign, and how many of those were about Israel.

And on a more vague, abstract level, the "vibes" level, so to say, a lot of the arguments in the primaries are about many Democratic primary voters thinking that "traditional", "mainstream" leaders of the Democratic Party are too willing to accommodate Trump and Trumpism, and wanting leaders who are more willing to take the fight to Trump instead.

On a lighter note, not too long ago, many supporters of the Democrats, for a while, talked more about a collection of single-cell organisms than about Israel or Palestine.

But I guess that once you've been absorbed into the Bari Weiss Reality Distortion Field, it makes perfect sense to believe that the Democrats don't talk about anything else than Israel these days.

One possible response might be that supporters of the Democrats shouldn't talk about all these things listed above, or shouldn't have the positions they have on these topics. But that's different from the question of what they really are talking about.

And of course, you can find individual activists who rarely talk about anything else than Palestine. You can find the counterparts to that among activists specializing in all kinds of issues.

Later, when talking about rising antisemitism in the USA, Rettig Gur claims that US-born Jews don't really know how to handle it, because they've supposedly never experienced it. In order to make that claim look a bit less ridiculous than people might think at first, he comes up with a distinction between "anti-Jewish prejudice" and "antisemitism", and claims that US-born Jews have supposedly only experienced the former until very recently.

According to him, the distinguishing characteristic of antisemitism, as opposed to mere anti-Jewish prejudice, is that the latter is based on seeing "The Jew" as the antithesis of everything good in the world. You can, of course, quibble with that distinction, but in that context, he makes some interesting points about cultural prejudices and how they work as shortcuts in the human mind that I actually mostly agree with.

But even if you accept his distinction, his claims about the supposed historical lack of antisemitism are still pretty shaky. Was the lynching of Leo Frank an act of outright antisemitism, or just anti-Jewish prejudice? Did the Skokie marchers express outright antisemitism, or just anti-Jewish prejudice? Was the Tree of Life massacre antisemitic, or just influenced by anti-Jewish prejudice?

Ant what about all the lesser known acts of anti-Jewish violence over the years? I can guarantee you that most of the perpetrators of these crimes did very much see "The Jew" as the antithesis of everything good in the world.

Since so many of these aggressions came from the far right, it's interesting that Rettig Gur, although he does briefly mention rising right-wing antisemitism, never seems to get the idea that many American Jews might not be as obsessed with (real or supposed) left-wing antisemitism because historically, they were used to mainly facing threats from the far right, which has been rising for a while now.

Finally, he gets into discussing intellectual history, and claims that a reason for the success and Prosperity of the USA is that its culture has traditionally mostly rejected ideas, like, for instance, Marxism, which claim to know everything about everything, about how everything will definitely turn out, and about how history has to develop. He praises the greater humility about what people can generally know in US culture, and describes that as very important.

Interesting point, but it only makes sense if you restrict your analysis to secular thought. The USA has traditionally been one of the least secularized countries in the Western World. And among explicitly Christian thinkers in the USA, very absolute certainty about how history will develop and what God's plan is has long been fairly common. Some of the biggest best-sellers of recent generations were about that.

He also claims that all those political ideologies he doesn't like that are now prominent on US campuses were "imported" there from Europe, Asia, and Africa. But the general theoretical model of oppression and privilege, no matter how much you might love it or hate it, was, to a large extent, developed by academics from the USA.

Sorry, just had to get all that off my chest.
Last edited by Raphael on Thu Jul 16, 2026 8:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

Post by bradrn »

I can’t comment much on most of that, but on this:
Raphael wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2026 8:13 am Then, Rettig Gur talks about how central Israel, which he, of course, sees as a stand-in for Jews in general, supposedly is in Democratic primaries by now. In that context, he claims that the Democrats supposedly can't talk about anything else these days.

Which, of course, would come as a pretty big surprise to anyone who's actually paid attention to what supporters of the Democrats have been talking about recently.

[…]

But I guess that once you've been absorbed into the Bari Weiss Reality Distortion Field, it makes perfect sense to believe that the Democrats don't talk about anything else than Israel these days.
I think this is a consequence of the more general Israeli Reality Distortion Field rather than Bari Weiss in particular. The Israeli media has a very annoying habit of reporting about absolutely everything from the perspective of its impact on Israel or Jews, and simply ignoring all world events which don’t fit into that frame. I guess it’s understandable given the history, but it does lead to a certain ignorance of how not everything in world affairs revolves around Israel.
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Ares Land
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

Post by Ares Land »

It's actually interesting, or at least part of it!
Raphael wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2026 8:13 am The nonsense starts with a theory that left-wing activism used to be all about climate change, but is now all about Israel. The explanation Rettig Gur has for this is that supposedly, switching to renewables is very expensive, and would hurt the working class a lot.
Left-wing activism is more about Israel than it used to be, I think (not that the Palestinian cause was always important, but I concede it's more so now.)
But, without getting into your very good retort, where did he even get the idea that climate change has been forgotten?

This seems to be an instance of the common right-wing fallacy. They're completely unconvinced by left-wing ideas and conclude that smart left-wingers must come to the same conclusion: they can't actually believe that, so they certainly have some dark ulterior motive.
And I'm sorry, but assuming that left-wingers actually mean the things they say explains the facts a lot better. I can only reach the same conclusion as you do:
Raphael wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2026 8:13 amErr, is it too much to ask that a journalist does some basic research before mouthing off with absolute confidence?
Raphael wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2026 8:13 amLater, when talking about rising antisemitism in the USA, Rettig Gur claims that US-born Jews don't really know how to handle it, because they've supposedly never experienced it. In order to make that claim look a bit less ridiculous than people might think at first, he comes up with a distinction between "anti-Jewish prejudice" and "antisemitism", and claims that US-born Jews have supposedly only experienced the former until very recently.

According to him, the distinguishing characteristic of antisemitism, as opposed to mere anti-Jewish prejudice, is that the latter is based on seeing "The Jew" as the antithesis of everything good in the world. You can, of course, quibble with that distinction, but in that context, he makes some interesting points about cultural prejudices and how they work as shortcuts in the human mind that I actually mostly agree with.
This is of some theoretical interest as such a distinction might indeed by useful in some special circumstances.
I don't think, though, that it's likely that we will ever encounter any kind of anti-Jewish prejudice that wasn't antisemitism by his definition. The last time such a thing occured was probably under the Roman empire.
Finally, he gets into discussing intellectual history, and claims that a reason for the success and Prosperity of the USA is that its culture has traditionally mostly rejected ideas, like, for instance, Marxism, which claim to know everything about everything, about how everything will definitely turn out, and about how history has to develop. He praises the greater humility about what people can generally know in US culture, and describes that as very important.
It's not a bad point, really. But American culture has other limiting factors, which I think amount to unquestioned assumptions -- about capitalism, for instance, or the US Constitution.
He also claims that all those political ideologies he doesn't like that are now prominent on US campuses were "imported" there from Europe, Asia, and Africa. But the general theoretical model of oppression and privilege, no matter how much you might love it or hate it, was, to a large extent, developed by academics from the USA.
And over here in Europe, right-wingers believe they were imported from the US!
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

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bradrn wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2026 8:37 am I can’t comment much on most of that, but on this:
Raphael wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2026 8:13 am Then, Rettig Gur talks about how central Israel, which he, of course, sees as a stand-in for Jews in general, supposedly is in Democratic primaries by now. In that context, he claims that the Democrats supposedly can't talk about anything else these days.

Which, of course, would come as a pretty big surprise to anyone who's actually paid attention to what supporters of the Democrats have been talking about recently.

[…]

But I guess that once you've been absorbed into the Bari Weiss Reality Distortion Field, it makes perfect sense to believe that the Democrats don't talk about anything else than Israel these days.
I think this is a consequence of the more general Israeli Reality Distortion Field rather than Bari Weiss in particular. The Israeli media has a very annoying habit of reporting about absolutely everything from the perspective of its impact on Israel or Jews, and simply ignoring all world events which don’t fit into that frame. I guess it’s understandable given the history, but it does lead to a certain ignorance of how not everything in world affairs revolves around Israel.
I have to say I have definitely seen this. When I read something in Israeli media everything is framed in reference to Israel and/or Jews it seems. What would one think if, say, American media did the same but from a White American POV?
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

Post by Raphael »

Travis B. wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2026 10:31 am
I have to say I have definitely seen this. When I read something in Israeli media everything is framed in reference to Israel and/or Jews it seems. What would one think if, say, American media did the same but from a White American POV?
I guess that might be simply a case of local news bias - "George W. Bush got re-elected. How does this affect us here in Middle-o-Nowhere County?"
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

Post by bradrn »

Raphael wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2026 10:37 am
Travis B. wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2026 10:31 am
I have to say I have definitely seen this. When I read something in Israeli media everything is framed in reference to Israel and/or Jews it seems. What would one think if, say, American media did the same but from a White American POV?
I guess that might be simply a case of local news bias - "George W. Bush got re-elected. How does this affect us here in Middle-o-Nowhere County?"
Pretty much, yes.
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

Post by Travis B. »

bradrn wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2026 10:40 am
Raphael wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2026 10:37 am
Travis B. wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2026 10:31 am
I have to say I have definitely seen this. When I read something in Israeli media everything is framed in reference to Israel and/or Jews it seems. What would one think if, say, American media did the same but from a White American POV?
I guess that might be simply a case of local news bias - "George W. Bush got re-elected. How does this affect us here in Middle-o-Nowhere County?"
Pretty much, yes.
The thing is that other countries' media seems capable of reporting news in other countries without doing this; e.g. I don't see this with regard to British media or even, for the most part, Al Jazeera.
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

Post by bradrn »

Travis B. wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2026 10:44 am
bradrn wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2026 10:40 am
Raphael wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2026 10:37 am

I guess that might be simply a case of local news bias - "George W. Bush got re-elected. How does this affect us here in Middle-o-Nowhere County?"
Pretty much, yes.
The thing is that other countries' media seems capable of reporting news in other countries without doing this; e.g. I don't see this with regard to British media or even, for the most part, Al Jazeera.
Well, those aren’t usually local news in the same sense. By contrast Israel has few media outlets with a genuinely international focus, if any.
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

Post by malloc »

Everyone here seems to agree that Trump and his followers are not nearly as clever or competent as I often fear. If so, then what would a truly competent and intelligent fascist movement look like? What would they be doing differently from Trump and company?
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

Post by Raphael »

malloc wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2026 9:11 pm Everyone here seems to agree that Trump and his followers are not nearly as clever or competent as I often fear. If so, then what would a truly competent and intelligent fascist movement look like? What would they be doing differently from Trump and company?
Hey, we don't want to give them ideas if any of them should be reading the ZBB, right? ;)
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

Post by Raphael »

Related to The Speech, here are a few interesting Bluesky posts from a political journalist in Colorado:

https://bsky.app/profile/kylec.bsky.soc ... skwgo7ts2h
In Denver, KCNC (CBS, CBS O&O) and KDVR (FOX, Nexstar) are carrying the President’s address on elections. KUSA (NBC, TEGNA) and KMGH (ABC, Scripps) are streaming it but not carrying it on air.
https://bsky.app/profile/kylec.bsky.soc ... snaqaqhs22
Among the documents released by the White House tonight is this claim that Colorado's voter registration rolls were "compromised" by China.

Colorado's voter registration rolls are public records. You can order a copy here: https://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/electi ... quests.pdf
https://bsky.app/profile/kylec.bsky.soc ... sqldq4w226
Colorado's most prominent election rigging conspiracy theorists (elected and unelected) are very, very quiet on social media tonight after Trump's address.
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

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Unrelated: OK, it's probably not that likely that this combination of events will happen in this exact way. But if it should happen, I want to be able to gleefully point to this post. So here we go:

At some point between now and the last point at which someone could realistically jump into the 2028 Republican presidential primaries, biology catches up with Trump. New President Vance, eager to find some way to make his reelection halfway likely, tries everything he can to back out of the Iran War. As a part of that, and as a sop to both the US public and the Iranian regime, he tries to make Hegseth one of the fall guys for the whole thing, and fires him.

Hegseth is mightily pissed about this. After drinking a few Testosterone Martinis, he jumps into the primary race as the unabashedly "pro-Israel", that is, pro-Ben-Gvir candidate. By that time, the GOP has a large and growing very decidedly antisemitic wing, but at the same time also still a fair number of primary voters who haven't abandoned their old pseudo-philo-semitic ways yet. So it's very difficult to predict which way the whole thing ends up going...
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

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malloc wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2026 9:11 pm Everyone here seems to agree that Trump and his followers are not nearly as clever or competent as I often fear. If so, then what would a truly competent and intelligent fascist movement look like? What would they be doing differently from Trump and company?
I'm not sure there is such a thing. Fascism is not based on competence or intelligence, and in fact distrusts if not despises them.

It depends on who you consider fascist, of course. Looking at a few contenders can be illuminating. Franco is often called a fascist, but the scholar of fascism Robert O. Paxton thinks he wasn't, at least after he took power. He disdained the mass emotionalism of fascism, avoided any more wars (including any alliance with the Axis), and gave the Falange no real power. Dictatorial or authoritarian conservatism can last a long time, but it requires knowing what the regime can and can't get away with-- a level of discrimination fascists lack.

Putin is probably the best possibility; he's been in power for 27 years. He's also losing a war he thought would be a walkover, losing his oil industry, losing allies (Venezuela, Syria), and scared Europe into not only re-arming itself but enlarging NATO. We don't know how this story ends, but it's not looking like cleverness and competence at this stage. He'd be in deeper trouble if he didn't have a friend in the White House.

Orbán is in the running, especially as he's the explicit role model for US conservatives. He held power for 16 years, and did his best to stifle Hungarian democracy, and in his early years was popular, not least because the economy seemed to be doing well. His spectacular defeat this year does take a lot of the shine off.

Reading a bit about Italy's Giorgia Meloni, I don't think she is a fascist. A smart US conservative could learn a lot from her.

Maybe your question is about whether Trump could be popular if he wasn't as foolish and narcissistic as he is. Obviously if he didn't keep shooting himself in the foot, he'd be in better shape. But it should be remembered that he roundly defeated his GOP rivals: very few wanted Mario Rubio or Ted Cruz or Ron DeSantis. Trump is, or was, an excellent campaigner and rabble-rouser, and probably his appeal is due to, not despite, his unpredictability and aggression. A candidate, of course, can promise anything. Governing is something else, which is why he's lost 1/4 of his support, including the surge of Hispanic voters that got him elected.

Back in 2002 or so, people were writing earnest books about the "new conservative majority", and it really looked possible. But US conservatives cannot stop themselves from overreaching. They indulge their fantasies and then lose Congress and then the presidency.
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

Post by Raphael »

zompist wrote: ↑Fri Jul 17, 2026 1:06 am
Maybe your question is about whether Trump could be popular if he wasn't as foolish and narcissistic as he is. presidency.
I've got the impression that his core supporters like him for his foolishness and narcissism.
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

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zompist wrote: ↑Fri Jul 17, 2026 1:06 am I'm not sure there is such a thing. Fascism is not based on competence or intelligence, and in fact distrusts if not despises them.
Raphael wrote: ↑Fri Jul 17, 2026 1:33 am I've got the impression that his core supporters like him for his foolishness and narcissism.
QFT, the incompetence is the whole point.

Fascism can last in two ways: one way is to brutally suppress all opposition, the other is to quietly switch to authoritarian conservatism. Preferably both. Step 1 is best done in countries where democracy is still fragile; much as they'd have wanted to, MAGA couldn't implement that.

What models do the fascists follow? What do they admire? I'd say Russia, China; in France they admire the Moroccan monarchy (though they won't admit it publicly for ideological reasons.) It's interesting to note that in China or Morocco democracy was never on the table; and in Russia only very briefly.
Reading a bit about Italy's Giorgia Meloni, I don't think she is a fascist. A smart US conservative could learn a lot from her.
She is a fascist in the most literal sense (the Italian Social Movement is a direct continuation of the Republic of Salò), or at least she used to be. But she decided to govern as a regular conservative instead. This seems to be more or less routine in Italian politics: Salvini was the same, and it's not that different from the Berlusconi case. Meloni seems to be in danger of losing her majority though.

This seems to be the way Italy processes, digests and minimizes the damage from its far-right and separatist impulses (and strange though the process may seem, so far, it seems to work.)
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

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I find it interesting that Modi hasn’t been mentioned yet. Of all the current world leaders he definitely seems the most fascist, possibly even more so than Trump. (I mean, the BJP literally started out as an imitation of the Italian Fascist Party…)
Ares Land wrote: ↑Fri Jul 17, 2026 3:33 am in France they admire the Moroccan monarchy
Oh?
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

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bradrn wrote: ↑Fri Jul 17, 2026 4:55 am I find it interesting that Modi hasn’t been mentioned yet. Of all the current world leaders he definitely seems the most fascist, possibly even more so than Trump. (I mean, the BJP literally started out as an imitation of the Italian Fascist Party…)
Ah, yes, that's a good point. I admit I don't know much about him.
bradrn wrote: ↑Fri Jul 17, 2026 4:55 am
Ares Land wrote: ↑Fri Jul 17, 2026 3:33 am in France they admire the Moroccan monarchy
Oh?
Yes. Well, it's not openly stated or anything. My views on this are admittedly based on vibes, but I'm fairly confident nonetheless. When you talk to far-right people who're familiar with Morocco, or read their opinions, you definitely get the idea they admire the model.
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

Post by WeepingElf »

The term fascist/fascism has IMHO deteriorated into a grab bag into which some leftists shove any kind of unpleasant right-wing authoritarian movements and governments, and it is actually none of the candidates zompist mentioned that is/was a full-blown fascist regime (any more than the ancien régime was one), though Franco and Putin got/get close. The Fratelli d'Italia (Meloni's party) indeed descend from the original Fascists, but I don't think they are fascists any more, just (still unpleasant) hard-line conservatives; just like, for instance, the German Die Linke descend from a Communist party, but are no longer Communist.
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

Post by Ares Land »

In my experience, 'fascist' tends to be freely used of anyone whose politics are even somewhat to the right of the speaker.

That said, I'll defend the use of the word 'fascist.' To be more specific, most of these people deserve the label fascist, but the far-right phenomenon is of course distinct from 1930s fascism.

What do we call, say, Italian politcal party who are in continuity with the fascist regime, and whose members privately or not-so-privately think Mussolini had the right idea? Even though, of course, they don't replicate 1920s fascism because the conditions are obviously (and thankfully) different. The ideology is not the same...but that's tricky because fascist ideology was never clear in the first place.
(I agree that Meloni isn't acting as a fascist in government; but she certainly used to be one.)

Is Elon Musk a fascist? In a sense, no, he's not even Italian. But he was not blowing kisses with that arm, if you see what I mean.

I don't think there's a word that sufficiently conveys the necessary sense of alarm. Besides, using a different label gives in to their propaganda -- it gives credit to the idea that they're regular right-wing movements, just a bit stronger on law and order than usual. (Technically, in France, the RN is not a Nazi or a fascist party, just a nationalist party that defends a handful of socialist policies. But I mean, come on. They can't be openly fascist or Nazi because that's illegal. Now, get a RN member drunk and ask him what he thinks should be done to Arabs, or how he feels about Le Pen winning one election and then losing the next one.)

Or we could get back to Umberto Eco's ur-fascism: https://theanarchistlibrary.org/library ... ur-fascism and see how much of the description fits.


One thing I agree with is that thankfully what we're dealing with is watered down fascism.
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

Post by Raphael »

Out of curiosity, how are the Americans here dealing with the partly politics-related twin disasters of wildfire smoke and diarrhea?
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