United States Politics Thread 47

[WeepingElf]

Please understand, I am not asking for debate on whether it's a fine idea to spread despair and defeatism, or to make up scenarios even more horrific than what we're already experiencing. I'm telling you it is not.

It has never been my intention to spread despair or defeatism, only to highlight how dire our situation has become. Sorry if my posts have spoiled the mood here. What would you recommend as a better way to discuss the crises facing us?

I recommend to dwell on the solutions rather than the problems. This is a good starting point.

[zompist]

It has never been my intention to spread despair or defeatism, only to highlight how dire our situation has become. Sorry if my posts have spoiled the mood here. What would you recommend as a better way to discuss the crises facing us?

1. Assume we all know the news. Don't pretend you're smarter than the rest of us here and have to inform us. Don't act like you're specially affected; you are in fact quite privileged compared to many of Trump's victims.
2. Do some research, especially about the thousand things you think you know. It's easy to find polls, for instance. Often the thing you're worried about is discussed, and far better, by someone else.
3. It wouldn't be a bad practice that for every bad sign you want to talk about, you talk about a failure of the right, or a victory of those resisting. You need to retrain your mind to not always focus on the negatives.
4. Avoid propaganda like "undeniable", "unstoppable", "remarkable". You always forget that building up these fascists is a service to them, not to us.

[rotting bones]

The Repression of Prairieland: https://youtu.be/FOrDvQZ3Ih4

[rotting bones]

Is it the case that despair leads to inaction? Despair could make you think you have nothing left to lose, giving you the energy of a rat backed into a corner. Relentless second guessing, information gathering and privilege comparing could keep you trapped: https://youtu.be/B-s3x7ign34 https://youtu.be/7oyuCKV6nM0

[malloc]

Is it the case that despair leads to inaction? Despair could make you think you have nothing left to lose, giving you the energy of a rat backed into a corner. Relentless second guessing, information gathering and privilege comparing could keep you trapped: https://youtu.be/B-s3x7ign34 https://youtu.be/7oyuCKV6nM0

Granted, my intention was never to spread despair but rather to emphasize how dire things have gotten in hopes of shaking people out of their complacency. Our current situation is rather like when the Nazis launched their blitzkrieg across Europe and conquered vast swaths from Poland to France and seemed poised to win the war. Unfortunately there is no analog to the USSR or USA waiting to turn the tide against them.

[bradrn]

but rather to emphasize how dire things have gotten in hopes of shaking people out of their complacency.

What makes you think we’re ‘complacent’‽

[Ketsuban]

Our current situation is rather like when the Nazis launched their blitzkrieg across Europe and conquered vast swaths from Poland to France and seemed poised to win the war. Unfortunately there is no analog to the USSR or USA waiting to turn the tide against them.

Ignoring the inconvenient-for-this-analogy fact that the USSR started off on the Axis side in order to (try to) gobble up parts of Eastern Europe and only turned coat after Germany decided with how badly Finland kicked their ass they must have been weak enough to invade (proving once again that fascists are bad at war) this is doing rather a disservice to the British and Canadian heroes who broke the back of the German air forces while America's fingers were still in its ears.

[malloc]

Ignoring the inconvenient-for-this-analogy fact that the USSR started off on the Axis side in order to (try to) gobble up parts of Eastern Europe and only turned coat after Germany decided with how badly Finland kicked their ass they must have been weak enough to invade (proving once again that fascists are bad at war) this is doing rather a disservice to the British and Canadian heroes who broke the back of the German air forces while America's fingers were still in its ears.

Sure but my point is that the Nazis enjoyed an overwhelming advantage early in the war and seemed poised to win. That is currently where we stand with today's reactionaries, stunned by their blitzkrieg and reduced to tactical retreats. Even drafting a plan to turn the tide is quite an extraordinary challenge.

[Ares Land]

There are limitation to the war metaphor; one is that, in Western countries, the struggle follows (more or less) the usual democratic process and timescale. So essentially we have to wait until the next election cycle to see how the situation evolves. We won't really know if Trump is "winning" or not until the midterms.

The upside is that the situation, while destructive enough, is not as damaging as WWII.

[WeepingElf]

There are limitation to the war metaphor; one is that, in Western countries, the struggle follows (more or less) the usual democratic process and timescale. So essentially we have to wait until the next election cycle to see how the situation evolves. We won't really know if Trump is "winning" or not until the midterms.

The upside is that the situation, while destructive enough, is not as damaging as WWII.

Right. And there is not much reason to fear that it will become as bad as it did back then. Trump isn't Hitler; he is now in office for a year and a half, and democracy in the United States (which by modern western European standards has been flawed before) is not yet destroyed, only severely damaged; Hitler abolished democracy and established a dictatorship within a few months. Also, Trump seems to be less warlike than Hitler: he is quick to strike, but not man enough to live through the consequences, as the current conflict with Iran shows. Putin gets closer to Hitler, but I'd rather compare him with Mussolini; he has shown his brutality in Ukraine, but there is little reason to believe that he wants a world war. Also, Trump and Putin do not really form an "axis" as Hitler and Mussolini did, even if no-one (probably not even Trump himself) can really tell whose side Trump is on in the Ukraine war.

[zompist]

There are limitation to the war metaphor; one is that, in Western countries, the struggle follows (more or less) the usual democratic process and timescale. So essentially we have to wait until the next election cycle to see how the situation evolves. We won't really know if Trump is "winning" or not until the midterms.

Yep. Against the "unstoppable" hypothesis is that Orbán, Bolsonaro, and Duterte were all thrown out in elections; also heartening were defeats of conservatives in Australia and Canada. (Not that there weren't reverses elsewhere, e.g. Chile.) The far right inevitably overreaches, gets corrupt, and/or ruins the economy.

Around the time of the election a lot of people were brandishing Hitler's timeline, and by now it's pretty clear that those predictions were wrong. Evil things have happened but not those evil things. So in general looking to WWII for either despair or hope is misguided.

The upside is that the situation, while destructive enough, is not as damaging as WWII.

Yeah, there's that. .

The Trump period may well be just as much of a watershed in history— see this column on the US's self-inflicted decline. I really hope Xi is looking at the $150 billion a year in trade his country is doing with Taiwan, rather than the dubious gains of starting his own stupid war.

A Democratic administration could regain some ground but a lot of US soft power has been thrown away for good, and if O'Brien is right, not an inconsiderable amount of its hard power. (This will not, however, somehow produce a tankie paradise.)

[Ares Land]

A Democratic administration could regain some ground but a lot of US soft power has been thrown away for good, and if O'Brien is right, not an inconsiderable amount of its hard power. (This will not, however, somehow produce a tankie paradise.)

I'd mitigate that somewhat regarding European countries.
Europe is a ponderous and slow-moving beast. There's a lot of talk right now regarding how far the US can be trusted, but if a Democrat is elected in 2028 they may find European attitudes haven't changed that much.

[Travis B.]

The Trump period may well be just as much of a watershed in history— see this column on the US's self-inflicted decline. I really hope Xi is looking at the $150 billion a year in trade his country is doing with Taiwan, rather than the dubious gains of starting his own stupid war.

I at least think Xi is smarter overall than Trump myself, smart enough to not replicate Trump or Putin's mistakes.

[rotting bones]

Is it the case that despair leads to inaction? Despair could make you think you have nothing left to lose, giving you the energy of a rat backed into a corner. Relentless second guessing, information gathering and privilege comparing could keep you trapped: https://youtu.be/B-s3x7ign34 https://youtu.be/7oyuCKV6nM0

Granted, my intention was never to spread despair but rather to emphasize how dire things have gotten in hopes of shaking people out of their complacency. Our current situation is rather like when the Nazis launched their blitzkrieg across Europe and conquered vast swaths from Poland to France and seemed poised to win the war. Unfortunately there is no analog to the USSR or USA waiting to turn the tide against them.

The dialectical materialist answer is that while the elites cooperate in their competition against the proletariat, the elites are also in competition with each other. In this view, as the elites destroy the world fighting each other, the proletariat will wake up and discover their common interests. Historically, resistance didn't materialize out of nowhere. On the other hand, this resistance has always been a minority in every country. The majority loves its sweet, sweet Dear Leader cock. If a revolution is necessary, some vanguard action is justified (though a permanent vanguard party is not).

[rotting bones]

What worries me about 21st century electoral democracy is that even if the fascists lose, they might be replaced by more humble far-right conservatives like Tisza in Hungary.

[malloc]

What worries me about 21st century electoral democracy is that even if the fascists lose, they might be replaced by more humble far-right conservatives like Tisza in Hungary.

Quite. These days it feels like our choices are between catastrophic reaction and maintaining a terrible status quo.

[Torco]

more like quick degradation of the status quo versus slow degradation of the status quo.

The Trump period may well be just as much of a watershed in history— see this column on the US's self-inflicted decline. I really hope Xi is looking at the $150 billion a year in trade his country is doing with Taiwan, rather than the dubious gains of starting his own stupid war.

I think the column is spot on

A Democratic administration could regain some ground but a lot of US soft power has been thrown away for good, and if O'Brien is right, not an inconsiderable amount of its hard power. (This will not, however, somehow produce a tankie paradise.)

a post-trump democratic administration -if such a thing does happen- would almost certainly regain some power in terms of like international standing and so on, just like the biden regime saw the US image abroad improve after the dip during trump 1. then again, after that admin, do we think the next republican president will be a sort of even-headed McCain type? and this is a genuine question, not an ironic one: how married to trumpism, qanon and so on is the republican party?

[malloc]

The fact that the US has elected Trump twice (along with similar if not quite as extreme presidents like W) will undoubtedly have long-term consequences for its reputation. From the perspective of other countries, Uncle Sam is an alcoholic who routinely gets hammered and abuses everyone around him. However reasonable he appears when sober, it's simply a matter of time before he falls off the wagon and goes on another drunken rampage. It seems hard to imagine the US getting a mulligan from the international community without some drastic reforms to ensure that nobody like Trump can ever take power again.

[WeepingElf]

The fact that the US has elected Trump twice (along with similar if not quite as extreme presidents like W) will undoubtedly have long-term consequences for its reputation. From the perspective of other countries, Uncle Sam is an alcoholic who routinely gets hammered and abuses everyone around him. However reasonable he appears when sober, it's simply a matter of time before he falls off the wagon and goes on another drunken rampage. It seems hard to imagine the US getting a mulligan from the international community without some drastic reforms to ensure that nobody like Trump can ever take power again.

In fact, I lost my faith in US democracy more than 40 years ago, and I consider it an electoral autocracy rather than a democracy.

[Torco]

I've made this point before, but thinking in terms of "a democracy" vs "not a democracy" is i think unhelpful. the system called liberal democracy -perhaps more precisely called liberal representative republics- is as democratic as it is, and within LRRs there are some more or less democratic than others. that being said, the US LRR apparently has crossed a certain threshold for you, what is this threshold ?