Zompist Bboard Again

malloc wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2026 9:04 am Based on everything I am hearing, the prospects of China invading Taiwan are getting higher everyday. They really want the island and the US has lost much credibility in deterring them given the Iran war. Since my workplace is owned by a Taiwanese company, an invasion would undoubtedly force it to shutter and leave me unemployed. Much as it clashes with my love of routine, I must seriously consider looking for another job. Waiting until the factory closes to start my job search would force me to survive months without any money until I manage to find new employment.

The PRC has been threatening to invade Taiwan for decades now, yet it still hasn't happened.

Travis B. wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2026 9:11 am

malloc wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2026 9:04 am Based on everything I am hearing, the prospects of China invading Taiwan are getting higher everyday. They really want the island and the US has lost much credibility in deterring them given the Iran war. Since my workplace is owned by a Taiwanese company, an invasion would undoubtedly force it to shutter and leave me unemployed. Much as it clashes with my love of routine, I must seriously consider looking for another job. Waiting until the factory closes to start my job search would force me to survive months without any money until I manage to find new employment.

The PRC has been threatening to invade Taiwan for decades now, yet it still hasn't happened.

Yes. They are like a dog that barks loudly, but doesn't bite. Xi Jinping and his cronies are certainly brutal, but they aren't buffoons like Donald Trump. They think about the consequences of what they do before they do it, which is something Trump appears to be unable to do. Putin's quagmire in Ukraine surely taught Xi a lesson.

malloc wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2026 9:04 am Based on everything I am hearing, the prospects of China invading Taiwan are getting higher everyday. They really want the island and the US has lost much credibility in deterring them given the Iran war. Since my workplace is owned by a Taiwanese company, an invasion would undoubtedly force it to shutter and leave me unemployed. Much as it clashes with my love of routine, I must seriously consider looking for another job. Waiting until the factory closes to start my job search would force me to survive months without any money until I manage to find new employment.

As I've mentioned before, China has been on the verge of invading Taiwan ever since the two have been separate. I'd even say that the chances of an invasion are decreasing as time goes on, just like how the chances of getting that $20 back from your friend decreases the longer he repeats "I'll pay you back later."

WeepingElf wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2026 10:33 amYes. They are like a dog that barks loudly, but doesn't bite. Xi Jinping and his cronies are certainly brutal, but they aren't buffoons like Donald Trump. They think about the consequences of what they do before they do it, which is something Trump appears to be unable to do. Putin's quagmire in Ukraine surely taught Xi a lesson.

Except that China has sixty times the population of Taiwan and could easily crush the latter through sheer numbers if nothing else. Historically the US would have provided a deterrent from invading but its current failure in Iran has greatly undermined that concern. There is no guarantee that the current administration, as selfish and incompetent as it has become, would even bother to defend Taiwan at all just as it stopped aiding Ukraine.

malloc wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2026 11:20 am

WeepingElf wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2026 10:33 amYes. They are like a dog that barks loudly, but doesn't bite. Xi Jinping and his cronies are certainly brutal, but they aren't buffoons like Donald Trump. They think about the consequences of what they do before they do it, which is something Trump appears to be unable to do. Putin's quagmire in Ukraine surely taught Xi a lesson.

Except that China has sixty times the population of Taiwan and could easily crush the latter through sheer numbers if nothing else. Historically the US would have provided a deterrent from invading but its current failure in Iran has greatly undermined that concern. There is no guarantee that the current administration, as selfish and incompetent as it has become, would even bother to defend Taiwan at all just as it stopped aiding Ukraine.

The economies of the PRC and Taiwan are deeply intertwined (consider how much of the chip industry is based in Taiwan, an industry the PRC is deeply reliant upon), and as a result any actual invasion of Taiwan by the PRC would end up greatly hurting the PRC. Xi isn't an idiot and certainly knows this.

WeepingElf wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2026 10:33 amYes. They are like a dog that barks loudly, but doesn't bite. Xi Jinping and his cronies are certainly brutal, but they aren't buffoons like Donald Trump. They think about the consequences of what they do before they do it, which is something Trump appears to be unable to do. Putin's quagmire in Ukraine surely taught Xi a lesson.

In the past, the PRC had to deal with the pre-Trump version of the USA. Now, they're dealing with the post-all-the-damage-Trump-has-done version of the USA.

Travis B. wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2026 11:47 am The economies of the PRC and Taiwan are deeply intertwined (consider how much of the chip industry is based in Taiwan, an industry the PRC is deeply reliant upon), and as a result any actual invasion of Taiwan by the PRC would end up greatly hurting the PRC. Xi isn't an idiot and certainly knows this.

Ah, that argument again. People in some parts of the Left keep assuming that people in general will or at least should act mainly in their economic self-interest, and then get all confused or angry or both when they don't. There are simply other things than economic issues that matter to a lot of people. Image. Pride. Prestige. Ego. The approval of the people they care about. And ideology. Xi follows an ideology that tells him all of what he sees as China should be united under his rule.

And he's firmly enough in charge, or at least thinks he is, that economic troubles in China, while perhaps embarrassing, wouldn't hurt him in a way he seriously has to worry about. So I can well imagine him ordering an invasion of Taiwan while basically telling his own people, "Some of you may lose your jobs, but it's a sacrifice I am willing to make."

In fact, discontent in China might even help him, if he can channel it into support for an even more aggressive foreign policy.

Raphael wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2026 2:07 pmAh, that argument again. People in some parts of the Left keep assuming that people in general will or at least should act mainly in their economic self-interest, and then get all confused or angry or both when they don't. There are simply other things than economic issues that matter to a lot of people. Image. Pride. Prestige. Ego. The approval of the people they care about. And ideology. Xi follows an ideology that tells him all of what he sees as China should be united under his rule.

Finally someone who gets it. One thing that has often bothered me about the Left is this underlying assumption, seemingly borrowed from classical economics, that humans are rational actors seeking to maximize their economic utility. Marxists especially are constantly flummoxed when people base their political decisions on ethnic chauvinism or religious dogma rather than class interests.

Now granted, I am not making any specific predictions that an invasion will occur, let alone at any particular time. Nonetheless it does seem increasingly likely and I need some plan if my current workplace is shuttered.

It's human nature to despise human nature. A human who supports human nature is an inhuman abomination.

rotting bones wrote: ↑Sat May 16, 2026 2:20 amIt's human nature to despise human nature. A human who supports human nature is an inhuman abomination.

My impression is that Enlightenment philosophers generally had a positive view of human nature, emphasizing our capacity for reason and cooperation. Marxism and other forms of socialism follow in this tradition, rejecting the assumption that humans are inherently selfish and evil. Would you consider all those philosophers inhuman abominations?

Cat lords manifest as cats, but cat ladies are humans.

malloc wrote: ↑Sat May 16, 2026 8:21 am

rotting bones wrote: ↑Sat May 16, 2026 2:20 amIt's human nature to despise human nature. A human who supports human nature is an inhuman abomination.

My impression is that Enlightenment philosophers generally had a positive view of human nature, emphasizing our capacity for reason and cooperation. Marxism and other forms of socialism follow in this tradition, rejecting the assumption that humans are inherently selfish and evil. Would you consider all those philosophers inhuman abominations?

This is about liberals getting angry when humans don't vote according to their economic interests.

Humanism originated during the Renaissance. Romanticism, Bergson, fascism and certain strains of postmodernism are in the same tradition.

As for the Enlightenment, its main focus was criticizing irrationality. If you believe irrationality to be a part of human nature, it would seem to follow that the Enlightenment opposed human nature. That's what reactionaries had to say to the philosophes. Marxists criticized the Enlightenment of having an individualistic approach to rationality without structural analysis.

Marxism neither fully supports nor opposes human nature. Let's ignore the polemical interpretation where Marx predicts the future. Marxism says that culture is shaped by a society's class structure. Individual opinions tend to be influenced by one's class position. It recommends that the proletarian revolution ignore the opinions of the upper classes and violate their rights, establishing a class dictatorship over them with the goal of eventually creating a "free" society in the sense of combining stateless anarchism with scientific development. This position would seem to reduce human naturalism even more than the Enlightenment. Presumably, the Marxist answer is that they are calling it like they see it, and they are not responsible for objective reality.

Some strains of postmodernism have drawn on Marxism to be explicitly anti-humanist. Deleuze is one of them. Althusser, Michel Foucault and Claude Levi-Strauss were others. Unlike Marx, who tried to be objective and materialist, all the postmodernists are characterized by a commitment to subjectivity.

I’m sort of afraid to ask…

Can't you say that anything is anything if you reason in circles about it long enough?

bradrn wrote: ↑Sat May 16, 2026 2:47 pmI’m sort of afraid to ask…

One possible interpretation is that European folklore is saturated with coded anti-Semitism in its stock villains. An alternative interpretation is that people in European folklore studies are quick to read folktales as harboring anti-Semitism based on superficial or strained readings.

malloc wrote: ↑Sat May 16, 2026 8:27 pm

bradrn wrote: ↑Sat May 16, 2026 2:47 pmI’m sort of afraid to ask…

One possible interpretation is that European folklore is saturated with coded anti-Semitism in its stock villains. An alternative interpretation is that people in European folklore studies are quick to read folktales as harboring anti-Semitism based on superficial or strained readings.

I have seen Islamists spread the rumor that Jews are Satanists right now.

I have always thought witches and wizards might be inspired by Judaism. Although everyone was casting spells in medieval times, Kabbalah was actually a part of mainstream Judaism. Other religions had a more strained relationship with practices that would be called magic.

There are even more nefarious antisemitic stereotypes too, but I don't want to go into those.

Then again, I have seen every possible stereotype applied to all outgroups: Black people are illiterate. The good doctors are all black. ...

As for the image, that's a meme my brother shared with me. He thought it's funny because a lot of medieval tropes turn out to be Jewish stereotypes like a lot of old timey American folk traditions turn out to be racist against black people. E.g. The ice cream song.

My brother didn't think it's literally true. It's an exaggeration with a grain of truth.

Travis B. wrote: ↑Sat May 16, 2026 8:10 pm Can't you say that anything is anything if you reason in circles about it long enough?

Yes, but there are many levels. When you argue that something is nothing, that's the Platonic monad. When you say it has understandable relationships with other things, that's the intelligible realm. When you say it's affected by other things, that's the intellectual realm. When you say it's enmeshed in everything else, that's the ocean of matter.

That's the angelic hierarchy.

I'm stress eating. Can't remember the last time that happened.

rotting bones wrote: ↑Sat May 16, 2026 8:40 pm Then again, I have seen every possible stereotype applied to all outgroups: Black people are illiterate. The good doctors are all black. ...

Nowadays, there's an online discourse saying Jews are smart. When I first joined the Internet, white nationalists repeatedly tried to convince me Jews are dumb.

Personally, I don't think there are any ethnicities. Humans are liars.

rotting bones wrote: ↑Sat May 16, 2026 10:50 pm

rotting bones wrote: ↑Sat May 16, 2026 8:40 pm Then again, I have seen every possible stereotype applied to all outgroups: Black people are illiterate. The good doctors are all black. ...

Nowadays, there's an online discourse saying Jews are smart. When I first joined the Internet, white nationalists repeatedly tried to convince me Jews are dumb.

Personally, I don't think there are any ethnicities. Humans are liars.

The racist noise I have heard is that Jews and East Asians are the Übermenschen (cf. the percentage of Nobel prize winners who are Jewish versus the percentage of the world population which is Jewish), and that (non-Jewish) White people need to 'protect' themselves from them because if things are on an even playing field Jews and East Asians will run roughshod over them as they are naturally superior to (non-Jewish) White people.