Elections in various countries

[malloc]

It’s not a sudden change, to be clear. When I was in France during the elections in 2024, I recall Le Pen being one of the frontrunners too.

True enough. This trend has been building over the past decade. Nonetheless it does feel like it's coming to fruition, with far right politicians winning elections in country after country over the past few years.

[lëtzeshark]

It’s not a sudden change, to be clear. When I was in France during the elections in 2024, I recall Le Pen being one of the frontrunners too.

Le Pen qualified for the run-off in both 2017 and 2022 (and, like bradrn mentioned, the RN was in the lead in many of the seats in the snap National Assembly election in 2024 and ended up in third, bearing in mind the National Assembly elections are different than the presidential). But Le Pen has already been on the rise for quite a while: she also took 3^rd in 2012 on her first attempt at the presidency (I remember that being the talk of everyone at the school I was working at). Le Pen has done quite a job of "detoxifying" that party from the time of her father and has reasonable personal popularity, plus there are others who are further right and much crazier than Le Pen.

The next president may also be Edouard Philippe, the first prime minister of the current president. Note that 1° the polls show him taking a slight lead over the neofascists 2° said neofascists often underperform compared to the polls 3° Marine Le Pen is currently still over her head over having fakely employed assistants at the EU.

Ultimately, indeed, it's quite a ways away until the next election, but many of the polls I see in France indeed suggest that Édouard Philippe and Marine Le Pen are quite close in the runoff polls (Le Pen is ahead, but within margin of error in most polls) and, in fact, Philippe is one of the few who is polling relatively close to Le Pen. (Gabriel Attal, another ex-PM, is quite far behind Le Pen, but perennial candidate Jean-Luc Mélénchon has practically no hope.) And turnout often goes up in round two.

[Ares Land]

What bradrn and lëtzeshark said; it's not a new phenomenon.

The RN can be said to have been the main opposition party since 2017, was very strong before that, and has been an important party since the 80s.

Specific factors for the 2027 election:

• Macron can't run this year (there's a two term limit on presidential mandates) - who his successor should be isn't clear yet -- the two main contenders are former PMs Gabriel Attal and Edouard Philippe.
• Macronisme (center-right neoliberalism with local peculiarities) is still popular in the business world and generally in the upper-middle class and above. Their one complaint is that they feel he hasn't gone far enough on the Thatcherite path.
• A number of the business people and the wealthy feel that they could make a lot more money under fascism.
• Overall French people aren't particularly happy about the past ten years.
• The left more or less disqualified itself. Through agressive tactics Mélenchon sabotaged all other left-wing parties (to be fair, they'd started the job themselves). About 20% of the voters are Mélenchon enthusiasts who are convinced he's the Kwisatz Haderach. The rest of us think he makes Stalin look like a Care Bear.

So, business as usual, only more so.

Opinion poll at this stage offer useful information and do signal a trend. They don't have much predictive value, though, their function is more to drum up support at this stage. A lot can happen in a year. In June 2016, the favorite candidate was Alain Juppé, in 2001 Lionel Jospin, in 1994 Edouard Balladur. (Who are these people? Well, my point exactly.)

[Raphael]

So now Peru moved to the right-wing, too? Damn.

[zompist]

So now Peru moved to the right-wing, too? Damn.

For two reasons, I wouldn't get too worried about this.

One, and most important: Peru has had 9 presidents in 9 years... Congress now routinely impeaches presidents it doesn't like. See this article for how this happened.

Two, Peruvian political movements are not really left vs. right. They're organized around a particular leader, often completely ad hoc. Keiko Fujimori's main claim to fame is being the daughter of previous president Alberto Fujimori— who was so corrupt he was forced out of office, inaugurating the whole revolving door system. Keiko is very likely much more interested in the corruption part than in the neoliberal part of her father's heritage.

[Raphael]

So now Peru moved to the right-wing, too? Damn.

For two reasons, I wouldn't get too worried about this.

One, and most important: Peru has had 9 presidents in 9 years... Congress now routinely impeaches presidents it doesn't like. See this article for how this happened.

Two, Peruvian political movements are not really left vs. right. They're organized around a particular leader, often completely ad hoc. Keiko Fujimori's main claim to fame is being the daughter of previous president Alberto Fujimori— who was so corrupt he was forced out of office, inaugurating the whole revolving door system. Keiko is very likely much more interested in the corruption part than in the neoliberal part of her father's heritage.

Ah, thank you.

[malloc]

Two, Peruvian political movements are not really left vs. right. They're organized around a particular leader, often completely ad hoc. Keiko Fujimori's main claim to fame is being the daughter of previous president Alberto Fujimori— who was so corrupt he was forced out of office, inaugurating the whole revolving door system. Keiko is very likely much more interested in the corruption part than in the neoliberal part of her father's heritage.

"Don't worry, she's not a fascist, just corrupt" is hardly reassuring admittedly. Based on the article you posted, the situation in Perú sounds quite dire even if no individual president is truly a disaster.

[MacAnDàil]

So now Peru moved to the right-wing, too? Damn.

For two reasons, I wouldn't get too worried about this.

One, and most important: Peru has had 9 presidents in 9 years... Congress now routinely impeaches presidents it doesn't like. See this article for how this happened.

Two, Peruvian political movements are not really left vs. right. They're organized around a particular leader, often completely ad hoc. Keiko Fujimori's main claim to fame is being the daughter of previous president Alberto Fujimori— who was so corrupt he was forced out of office, inaugurating the whole revolving door system. Keiko is very likely much more interested in the corruption part than in the neoliberal part of her father's heritage.

After reading that article and looking at the Peruvian general election results, it seems that the new left-wing majority in the Peruvian Congress may remove the Fujimori daughter swiftly.

[Raphael]

Not about an election, but about cultural and to some extent political developments in India.

Over in the comments section for Bret Devereaux's blog, a commenter going by the name of Hector, who seems to have some kind of Tankie politics, has nevertheless posted something interesting:

I think one of the most interesting trends in South Asian religion in recent decades is actually kind of along the opposite lines. You have some tribal or otherwise marginal groups, both in India and Nepal which historically might have been considered to be practicing broadly “Hindu” or “Popular Hindu” religion, who are now starting to assert “no, actually, we’re our own religion, something distinct”. Like these groups for example: In the past, the ruling authorities (whether Brahminical Hindu, or Muslim, or British) would have had strong reasons for classifying these people as “Hindu” rather than as animists or generic polytheists or nature worshippers. Now that modernity and modern political ideologies have made tribal peoples more politically empowered and self confident, you’re starting to see them assert “no actually, we’re not Hindu, we’re nature worshippers.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarnaism

Thus far it looks like the groups involved are fairly small groups in the east or northeast (although “small” in South Asia still means we’re talking about millions of people), but if and when organized, “official” Hinduism gets more hijacked by a very specific cultural, political and ideological group, it’s going to be interesting to see if things like this take off in other parts of the country as well, and if groups on the periphery of the “Hindu” fold start self defining as their own religion. They would have pretty good justification! According to the scholars, it looks like some of the deities worshipped especially in the south and east and by people lower down the social scale, are very ancient and actually predate the Indo-European arrival and the formation of Hindu religion as we know it.

Any additional information or comments on that?

[malloc]

Sweden held a parliamentary election this week with a coalition of left-leaning parties narrowly defeating the incumbent right wing government, which includes the far right. Some welcome good news, even if not an overwhelming victory.

[WeepingElf]

Sweden held a parliamentary election this week with a coalition of left-leaning parties narrowly defeating the incumbent right wing government, which includes the far right. Some welcome good news, even if not an overwhelming victory.

Correct. You see, sometimes the right wing doesn't win - they are not invincible.

[romddude]

It is over in Brazil. The hard Bolsonarist right-wing has won a historic victory unlike anything seen in recent history.

Bolsonarist Congress
Bolsonarist Senate
Will soon have a Bolsonarist Supreme Court

Flavio Bolsonaro will win the second term without a doubt.
Never, even at Lula's and his party's height of popularity, has a party achieved such hegemony and power.

There is nobody in the center, center-left or left that can serve as an alternative in the next election cycle, unlike in the USA where some names have popped up. The center and center-left are very weak, and the popular left-wing candidates have generally consistently failed to find any popularity outside of their restricted left-wing bubbles.

And they managed all this while Flavio Bolsonaro and lots of key figures in his party are deeply involved in a number of corruption scandals.

[malloc]

It is over in Brazil. The hard Bolsonarist right-wing has won a historic victory unlike anything seen in recent history.

Bolsonarist Congress
Bolsonarist Senate
Will soon have a Bolsonarist Supreme Court

Flavio Bolsonaro will win the second term without a doubt.
Never, even at Lula's and his party's height of popularity, has a party achieved such hegemony and power.

There is nobody in the center, center-left or left that can serve as an alternative in the next election cycle, unlike in the USA where some names have popped up. The center and center-left are basically dead, all you have are left-wing proper candidates that always fail to find any popularity outside of their left-leaning bubbles.

This means pretty much the entire continent of South America has fallen. An utter catastrophe. Only a small and shrinking handful of countries remain to support any kind of left or even centrist politics.

[Raphael]

It is over in Brazil. The hard Bolsonarist right-wing has won a historic victory unlike anything seen in recent history.

Bolsonarist Congress
Bolsonarist Senate
Will soon have a Bolsonarist Supreme Court

Flavio Bolsonaro will win the second term without a doubt.
Never, even at Lula's and his party's height of popularity, has a party achieved such hegemony and power.

There is nobody in the center, center-left or left that can serve as an alternative in the next election cycle, unlike in the USA where some names have popped up. The center and center-left are very weak, and the popular left-wing candidates have generally consistently failed to find any popularity outside of their restricted left-wing bubbles.

And they managed all this while Flavio Bolsonaro and lots of key figures in his party are deeply involved in a number of corruption scandals.

Damn. That sucks. Commiserations.

[WeepingElf]

Where did you get the news that Bolsonaro has won? As far as I have heard, there will be a runoff, though a Bolsonaro victory in that runoff seems likely.

[Raphael]

Where did you get the news that Bolsonaro has won? As far as I have heard, there will be a runoff, though a Bolsonaro victory in that runoff seems likely.

I think that's what romddude was getting it.

[romddude]

Where did you get the news that Bolsonaro has won? As far as I have heard, there will be a runoff, though a Bolsonaro victory in that runoff seems likely.

There will be a run-off, but never since Brazil's redemocratization has a president who won in the first term lost in the second. Bolsonaro has 47% and he currently inherits 3-5% from some of the third party candidates that weren't him or Lula but are right-wing. Lula's only hope would be to manage a miraculous mass mobilization of people who didn't show up to vote in the first term and have them all vote for him, in a way that Brazil has not seen before. Sadly, we don't have hope.

Even if he does all that, the Congress and Senate are basically lost.

[WeepingElf]

Where did you get the news that Bolsonaro has won? As far as I have heard, there will be a runoff, though a Bolsonaro victory in that runoff seems likely.

There will be a run-off, but never since Brazil's redemocratization has a president who won in the first term lost in the second. Bolsonaro has 47% and he currently inherits 3-5% from some of the third party candidates that weren't him or Lula but are right-wing. Lula's only hope would be to manage a miraculous mass mobilization of people who didn't show up to vote in the first term and have them all vote for him, in a way that Brazil has not seen before. Sadly, we don't have hope.

Even if he does all that, the Congress and Senate are basically lost.

I understand. That means that Brazil is lost, and the Amazon rain forest too.

[malloc]

Once again, I must ask what the hell is happening. Country after country is diving headfirst into reaction and tyranny, ignoring the lessons of history in favor of ignorant bigotry. The fact that this keeps happening all across the world cries out for some systemic explanation but I struggle to imagine what. It feels like the reactionaries have found some secret weapon to convert the masses en masse.

[rotting bones]

Once again, I must ask what the hell is happening. Country after country is diving headfirst into reaction and tyranny, ignoring the lessons of history in favor of ignorant bigotry. The fact that this keeps happening all across the world cries out for some systemic explanation but I struggle to imagine what. It feels like the reactionaries have found some secret weapon to convert the masses en masse.

For reasons I've explained ad nauseam:

1. https://snapshotsofthelabyrinth.photo.b ... apitalism/
2. https://snapshotsofthelabyrinth.photo.b ... -planning/, especially small business owners.
3. https://snapshotsofthelabyrinth.photo.b ... al-values/
...

The major problem is that contemporary "leftists" have somehow become incapable of accepting correct explanations and changing course accordingly. That's the bigger mystery.