Russia invades Ukraine

[Moose-tache]

So... Ukraine, huh? Honestly, I didn't think it was going to happen. I guess it's still possible to avoid a large scale assault (I haven't found any reports of where Russian forces are in Ukraine if indeed they have crossed the border), and any occupation/annexation is probably off the table. But this could still be the largest war in Europe since 1945. Cities as far west as Ivano-Frankivsk have reportedly been bombed.

I guess the two big remaining questions are: will Russian and Ukrainian forces meet in any kind of conventional battle before the inevitable surrender, and how much and in which way will Biden make everything worse?

[Raphael]

I worry that this will end either with nuclear annihilation or with Russian troops in Lisbon.

[WeepingElf]

I don't think Putin will try a war against the NATO. He may be brutal, but he isn't stupid. And nobody in the EU, nor in the current US government, wants war with Russia over Ukraine, so we can rule this out too. These reasons give me confidence that this is not the start of WW3. But indeed, nobody really knows what goes on in Putin's head and what he is up to next, or what happens when the Republicans win the next US presidential elections, so this is a reason to worry.

[Raphael]

I don't think Putin will try a war against the NATO. He may be brutal, but he isn't stupid.

Even smart people sometimes miscalculate. And he might get drunk on his own success.

[Jonlang]

So... Ukraine, huh? [...] this could still be the largest war in Europe since 1945.

So the 1992-1995 Bosnian War didn't happen?

[Linguoboy]

So... Ukraine, huh? [...] this could still be the largest war in Europe since 1945.

So the 1992-1995 Bosnian War didn't happen?

The population of Bosnia and Hercegovina is less than tenth of Ukraine's. The Ukrainian military has more active troops than there are people living in any Bosnian city, including Sarajevo.

[Moose-tache]

So... Ukraine, huh? [...] this could still be the largest war in Europe since 1945.

So the 1992-1995 Bosnian War didn't happen?

What? I'm confused. I said it has the potential to be, since Russia and Ukraine have a combined 400,000 soldiers in the region. I think that's safely larger than Bosnia.

On a serious note, wars involving developed countries have gotten a lot smaller over the last several decades. The last conflict between two powers with over a quarter million soldiers at their disposal was the Iraq War, and its prequel, and those wars had few large conventional battles. If Ukraine decides to put up a fight, the most recent war on this scale with actual pitched battles would be the Iran-Iraq War, a war that may have left as many as a million casualties by some estimates. So this is

[zompist]

Well, it looked like he wanted to invade, and he did. The big questions are what does he think he's doing, and how much will the Ukrainians fight back?

CNN reported that Hostomel or Antonov airport outside Kyiv has been taken; but Ukraine is saying that it's taken it back. Securing the airport is a clear step on the way of occupying the capital. Putin evidently doesn't just want to shore up the secessionists in the east, but take over the country.

It's hard to figure out what will satisfy someone who is dealing with made-up problems. Ukraine is no threat to Russia, and I doubt very much that he is worried about NATO expansion— Ukraine is not a member and NATO has been in absolutely no hurry to admit it. But pretending to be a victim obviously suits him. My guess is that he wants what he had ten years ago, a pro-Russian puppet regime like Belarus.

Can he get it though? Taking over a huge country of 41 million might be difficult; holding it, even more so. I suspect he's overestimated how divided the West is— he's being cheerled by Fox News, but that's not going to stop anything.

On other other hand, taking over Kyiv and installing a pretend government might be all he's after— post-Soviet Russian policy has been full of creating pro-Russian enclaves. But it all depends on whether Ukraine is capable of resisting on the scale of Afghanistan, and whether the West feels like supplying the government (or the resistance, if it comes to that).

[Moose-tache]

I think it goes without saying that full, permanent occupation is not the goal. As you said, it's about buffer states (and puppet buffer states when possible). Russia hasn't annexed South Ossetia, or Donbas/Luhansk, or Belarussia for that matter, because absorbing your buffer takes away your buffer. Putin's ideal scenario is to go back to the days of revolving door Ukrainian politics, where he could maneuver a pro-Russia leader into power with a modest effort. The problem is, Ukraine isn't as divided on this issue as they used to be, and there is no popular pro-Russian politician in a position to take over from Zelensky.

I think the most likely explanation for all this isn't that Putin wanted to invade Ukraine and gobble up its territory, and so he did. I think he's more trapped than that. His domestic media apparatus has been attacking Ukraine for years, possibly inventing two major false flag operations to drum up opposition to Ukraine in Russia. I think the end-game for that was to simply destabilize Ukraine, keep a permanent separatist conflict brewing in the east, and keep it out of NATO. But eventually things got away from him. That happens to dictators a lot; they need to project power, and paradoxically that can limit their options. Saddam didn't have the luxury of admitting he didn't have nukes, and Stalin didn't have the luxury of admitting he hadn't orchestrated the Great Purge*.

Putin's information campaign has reached such a desperate state that he's calling a Jew a Nazi; I don't think any of this was Plan A. But you can't accuse your enemies of committing war crimes and then do nothing. That implies that either you lied or you don't care. He's probably hoping that a quick shock-and-awe operation will lead to capitulation, then Russian forces can withdraw, claiming to have made their point, and go back to the original plan of making absolutely sure that the cease-fire line in the east never sees an actual cease-fire. The last thing Putin wants is a full-on war, let alone an occupation.

* This fact was only revealed in the west after the opening of Russian archives in the early nineties. One of my mentors in college made a career out of demonstrating all the things we thought Stalin did, when in fact he was just like that dog in the burning house saying this is fine.

EDIT: Also, you guys, when did Putin get fat?

EDIT EDIT: It seems that containment around the Chernobyl nuclear site has been breached. Readings from the site are over twenty times what they were yesterday.

[hwhatting]

There's another point. Putin is 70 now; he has maybe another 10 - 20 years to rule over Russia, but he doesn't seem to be able to just sit quietly in a palace and enjoy bossing people around and drinking champagne (or vodka). In the last couple of years he has watched Lukashenko being seriously endangered by popular protests, Karimov being (rightfully) blamed for all of Uzbekistan's problems by his successor after his death, Nazarbaev in Kazakhstan trying to step down from official power in order to preserve his legacy from behind the throne, and failing. My guess is that he is thinking very much about his legacy. If he had stepped down for good in 2008, he could have done this as the "man who brought Russia back from chaos", but that doesn't cut it anymore; he can't and wouln't want to reform the country, because that would mean dismantling a system he built himself and ending his own power. The only road to become a hero for the history books*) is conquest, a restoration of the Russian / Soviet empire, something he has spoken about sufficiently in the past. And every step Ukraine makes nearer to the EU and NATO makes that more difficult; I think he felt he had to act now, as long as Ukraine isn't integrated with the West so strongly that the West would go to war over Ukraine.
*) Obviously, the kind of history book for which Caesar, Genghis Khan, and Stalin are heros.

[Richard W]

EDIT EDIT: It seems that containment around the Chernobyl nuclear site has been breached. Readings from the site are over twenty times what they were yesterday.

There's a suggestion going round that this is just the 'dust' being kicked up by the heavy vehicles in the area, rather than any breach in containment.

[Richard W]

On other other hand, taking over Kyiv and installing a pretend government might be all he's after— post-Soviet Russian policy has been full of creating pro-Russian enclaves. But it all depends on whether Ukraine is capable of resisting on the scale of Afghanistan, and whether the West feels like supplying the government (or the resistance, if it comes to that).

The parallels to 1938 or 1939 are worrying. Is this like the Sudetenland in 1938 without the Munich agreement, though I have less confidence in the ability of the Ukrainians to resist via confidential warfare. and remember what became of the Sudetenlanders!

For 1939, one must remember the excess caution of the French - they didn't attack Germany while the German army was held down in Poland. A bold move could have dire consequences - but mutterings that the Baltic states aren't any more real countries than the Ukraine, and threats that Sweden or Finland joining NATO would have severe consequences, worryingly suggest that the longer we wait before joining in the worse it gets. I hope all this has been thought through.

[Moose-tache]

EDIT EDIT: It seems that containment around the Chernobyl nuclear site has been breached. Readings from the site are over twenty times what they were yesterday.

There's a suggestion going round that this is just the 'dust' being kicked up by the heavy vehicles in the area, rather than any breach in containment.

I've heard this theory. I don't know how much sense it makes, because the biggest spike came from the containment vessel itself, not the surrounding roads and fields. Unless Russian vehicles are passing primarily through the containment vessel, I don't know how much I believe that explanation. But either way the only readings we have are from Ukrainian government agencies, which means we have no data for the last day and a half.

For the record, I still think the invasion is a last-ditch effort to destabilize Ukraine to keep it out of NATO, not a conquest. I doubt Putin will try to keep a universally hated pro-Russian leader in Kyiv. More likely he will force Zelenskyy to retire and be replaced by a rapid series of nameless, faceless moderates, and Putin then will withdraw troops to Dobas/Luhansk, to keep the skirmishes lively. Basically turning back the clock to 2015 is his best remaining option, since having a proper puppet satellite in Ukraine isn't really possible anymore. If he's lucky, Ukrainian politics will be fractured, aggressive, and incompetent, thus never being acceptible as a NATO member.

[zompist]

For the record, I still think the invasion is a last-ditch effort to destabilize Ukraine to keep it out of NATO, not a conquest. I doubt Putin will try to keep a universally hated pro-Russian leader in Kyiv. More likely he will force Zelenskyy to retire and be replaced by a rapid series of nameless, faceless moderates, and Putin then will withdraw troops to Dobas/Luhansk, to keep the skirmishes lively. Basically turning back the clock to 2015 is his best remaining option, since having a proper puppet satellite in Ukraine isn't really possible anymore. If he's lucky, Ukrainian politics will be fractured, aggressive, and incompetent, thus never being acceptible as a NATO member.

I think it's gone too far for that. I doubt there is a big supply of pro-Russian puppets-- if there was a month ago, there's a lot less now. The only way to keep a puppet regime in power is to occupy the country indefinitely.

Edit: Bret Devereaux has some thoughts on the situation. If I could baldly summarize, Putin is probably making a big mistake, but isn't going to realize it for some time. And he's left himself no exit, so he's going to keep bludgeoning on, at enormous human cost.

[alice]

Edit: Bret Devereaux has some thoughts on the situation. If I could baldly summarize, Putin is probably making a big mistake, but isn't going to realize it for some time. And he's left himself no exit, so he's going to keep bludgeoning on, at enormous human cost.

This. He's delusional and is desparately trying to salvage public opinion and his place of history in an unnecessary destructive way. There's no successful outcome for him, which is probably the only good to come out of it.

[rotting bones]

These analyses are too values-oriented for my liking. Russia has an authoritarian state because many of its Asian cities are not self-sufficient, and the state needs to subsidize grain transport to prevent famine.

I think Putin is invading Ukraine for the same reason American presidents attack the Middle East: All his plans to fix the economy have failed, and he's in full ass-covering mode. He thinks a just war will boost his popularity at home. The (fully justified) hysteria comes from Europeans relearning how it feels to have a war break out in your neighborhood after a long time.

It's wrong to mistake Putin for his moronic supporters and ideologists. He's a cynical politician, and I really doubt he cares about his place in history. In fact, all the benefits of occupying Ukraine are absurdly long term: Russia's natural borders with Europe are in west Ukraine, Ukraine's arable land might make it a breadbasket for Russia, and so on.

[Ares Land]

I read a few speeches by Putin on the subject. He seems genuinely convinced that there's no such thing as Ukraine. (In his mind, it's at best an unruly province being set up as a puppet state by NATO.)

(I don't know much, or at all about Russia. I have no idea if that makes sense to Russians or if it registers as obvious propaganda.)

I'm surprised that our usual pro-Putin critters are keeping really quiet.

[Moose-tache]

snip

Well put.

[Raphael]

And now Putin has put his nuclear weapons on alert. Oh, I'm sure that if he destroys the world, it'll be because mean other people forced him to do so.

[Raphael]

These analyses are too values-oriented for my liking.

You don't like values-oriented analyses? From a lot of your posts over the years, I've got the impression that you believe fairly strongly that oppression is bad and should be fought against. What is that attitude, if not a value?